Wednesday, December 31, 2014

RIAs, Get With It: Here Comes ‘Generation Now’

A pair of Schwab Advisor Services studies released June 19 focus on the opportunities for RIAs among the members of “Generation Now,” affluent people ages 30 to 45 who already control $3.5 trillion in investable assets.

While Bernie Clark, executive vice president and head of SAS at Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW), says “the research clearly shows that the RIA model is right for these individuals,” advisors who assume they can attract and service these younger prospective clients with the same tactics employed for baby boomer clients will be disappointed.

In an interview at ThinkAdvisor’s offices on June 17, Clark pointed out that those RIA firms who already are having success with ‘Gen Now’ “tend to have a next-gen advisor” on their staff. Gen Now wants “more connectivity” with their advisors, he said, and “on their terms.”

Clark said that “to appeal to Gen Now, you have to look like them,” and since they have “new centers of influence,” often tied to their social media networks, advisors must figure out “how do you get into those places?”

In addition, RIA firms that “embrace technology” see it not as “a distraction,” but rather a business model that improves their firms’ efficiency while also serving as an entrée into Gen Now’s networks. That’s yet another reason for advisors to “hire more younger people with social media” expertise, Clark argued.

The “Generation Now” study was conducted in March and April of this year with 40 participants ages 30 to 45 with investable assets of at least $500,000 or a household income of at least $150,000. Schwab Advisor Services also released the findings of its 15th semiannual Independent Advisor Outlook Study (IAOS), which surveyed 720 independent advisors (not all of whom custody with Schwab) from mid-April to early May. The findings of that study dovetailed with the opportunities presented by Gen Now, a term Schwab coined to reflect its belief that younger investors are a significant opportunity now, not in some ill-defined future, for advisors. 

Generation Now Findings

The Gen Now study found that these younger affluent individuals share many of the same goals-based planning needs as boomers, which is valuable because “fractional points of return haven’t been driving the relationship” between RIAs and their clients, Clark said. However, they also have different characteristics.

For one, they’re more anxious, based on the experiences they’ve had with terrorism, the Great Recession, the dot-com and housing bubbles and pervasive unemployment, especially among younger people. They also tend to distrust financial institutions, reflected in the high levels of cash they hold in their portfolios. They can’t differentiate between different types of advisors, distrust the profession in general and feel that advisors don’t understand them. However, they hope for financial freedom, which they define as not having to worry about the unexpected, and they mostly want to feel sure that their income and investments will cover the costs of health care, education, housing and elder care expenses.

Finally, Clark pointed out that their money goals do not revolve around acquiring ‘things’ and instead “they want experiences and travel.” In the investing realm, Clark suggested that socially responsible investing strategies will be important to the members of this generation.

The IAOS study, the findings of which were also presented at SAS’ Explore conference for advisors in Naples, Fla., on June 19, was tailored specifically to explore advisors’ attitudes about Gen Now. It turns out their attitudes are decidedly mixed over whether that generation represents a business threat or an opportunity.

Of the 720 advisors surveyed — who self-reported that they had $180 billion in aggregate AUM — 37% said they saw risk in the impending wealth transfers from older generations to younger, and said they needed to “develop new client relationships” that will allow them to maintain their current AUM and grow their businesses.

Another 40%, however, saw this big wealth transfer as “an opportunity to develop a model to meet the needs of emerging clients and smaller accounts.” Those findings are particularly telling, Clark said in the interview, since 40% of RIAs’ clients are now retired, with another 30% to retire in the next 10 years, with serious repercussions for the standard RIA business model of charging fees for managing assets, which will decline with so many clients drawing down their portfolios for income in retirement.

So how can RIAs attract that next generation of clients and their assets? Ninety-one percent of respondents said that demonstrating firm expertise and services will be the most important step they can take, followed at 83% by three different, but related, steps. The three are having a strong reputation “based on firm reviews and centers of influence relationships; offering a unique service or value proposition; and clearly communicating the benefits/differences of the RIA model.”

What about referrals, the lifeblood of new business for most advisors? While 32% of respondents said referrals were a formal and routine part of their firm’s culture, 55% said their referral process was informal. In two other findings, 53% said they believe reaching the next generation will require “engagement with entirely new” centers of influence, but only 32% said that social media were “vital to communicating with the next generation of clients.”

Responding to those findings, Clark said in the interview that as part of Schwab’s ongoing Insights to Action Program, it will launch a new program for advisors to help them “create the discipline” needed around referrals. That program, he said, will stress that in every firm “everybody is responsible for referrals, not just the rainmakers,” and that firms should institute “reward systems” that provide incentives for everyone in the firm — “advisors and support staff” — to get referrals.

The study found that such a system is already partly in place at 55% of respondents’ firms who said they “measure staff performance based on the amount of new assets they bring to the firm.”

Why Best Buy Shares Are Plunging Today

NEW YORK (TheStreet) - Best Buy (BBY) shares were sinking 5.7% to $23.91 early Thursday after the electronics retailer warned that same-store sales would be lower in its fiscal second and third quarters, as consumers pull back on purchasing electronics and also await new mobile phone product launches, namely from Apple (AAPL), which is rumored to be launching its latest iPhone model in August.

"As we look forward to the second and third quarters, we are expecting to seeongoing industry-wide sales declines in many of the consumer electronics categories in which we compete," Best Buy CFO Sharon McCollam said in this morning's earnings release. "We are also expecting ongoing softness in the mobile phone category as consumers eagerly await highly-anticipated new product launches. Consequently, absent any major product launches, we are expecting comparable sales to be negative in the low-single digits in both the second and third quarters."

Best Buy said that comparable sales in its fiscal 2015 first quarter fell 1.9% overall, compared to expectations of 0.8% decline. In its domestic segment comps declined 1.3%, offset by a 29.2% increase in comparable online sales, it said. Total revenue fell 3.3% in the May 3-ending quarter to $9.035 billion, also missing analysts' expectations.

On a GAAP basis, Best Buy reported earnings from continuing operations of $1.31 a share. Non-GAAP diluted earnings from continuing operations were 33 cents a share compared to 32 cents a share in the year-earlier quarter and consensus expectations of 30 cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters. Best Buy is holding a conference call at 8 am ET to discuss the results. --Written by Laurie Kulikowski in New York. Follow @LKulikowski >>Read More: Target's Big Miss: What Wall Street Thinks Staples' Restructuring Is 'Too Late,' Says Analyst Why JCP's Online Strategy Is Not That Bad

Why Best Buy Shares Are Plunging Today

NEW YORK (TheStreet) - Best Buy (BBY) shares were sinking 5.7% to $23.91 early Thursday after the electronics retailer warned that same-store sales would be lower in its fiscal second and third quarters, as consumers pull back on purchasing electronics and also await new mobile phone product launches, namely from Apple (AAPL), which is rumored to be launching its latest iPhone model in August.

"As we look forward to the second and third quarters, we are expecting to seeongoing industry-wide sales declines in many of the consumer electronics categories in which we compete," Best Buy CFO Sharon McCollam said in this morning's earnings release. "We are also expecting ongoing softness in the mobile phone category as consumers eagerly await highly-anticipated new product launches. Consequently, absent any major product launches, we are expecting comparable sales to be negative in the low-single digits in both the second and third quarters."

Best Buy said that comparable sales in its fiscal 2015 first quarter fell 1.9% overall, compared to expectations of 0.8% decline. In its domestic segment comps declined 1.3%, offset by a 29.2% increase in comparable online sales, it said. Total revenue fell 3.3% in the May 3-ending quarter to $9.035 billion, also missing analysts' expectations.

On a GAAP basis, Best Buy reported earnings from continuing operations of $1.31 a share. Non-GAAP diluted earnings from continuing operations were 33 cents a share compared to 32 cents a share in the year-earlier quarter and consensus expectations of 30 cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters. Best Buy is holding a conference call at 8 am ET to discuss the results. --Written by Laurie Kulikowski in New York. Follow @LKulikowski >>Read More: Target's Big Miss: What Wall Street Thinks Staples' Restructuring Is 'Too Late,' Says Analyst Why JCP's Online Strategy Is Not That Bad

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

5 Financial Milestones to Reach in 2015

Hands holding piggy bank Cultura RF/Getty Images Whether it's getting fit, eating better, traveling to new places, experiencing different things, making progress in a career or relationship -- we all have a few ways we'd like to take action to make the next year even better than the last. When you're thinking about the goals you'd like to set and reach in 2015, don't forget to consider how you'd like to improve your personal finances and create a better situation for yourself. Not sure where to start? Try incorporating one of these five financial milestones to reach in 2015 into your new year's resolutions. 1. Learn More About Personal Finance Did you find yourself wanting to learn more about your retirement accounts but didn't know who to ask? Have you been curious about HSAs or not sure what a certain investing term means? Did you want to learn more about money, but didn't know what questions to start asking? Make 2015 the year to increase your financial knowledge and get the answers to the questions you've been asking (or figure out the right questions to asking!). Read some general personal finance blogs like MoneyUnder30 -- and then look for other sites that talk about specific topics or issues you relate to (DailyFinance, of course, is a great start). Check out books at the library on financial planning. Tune in to financial podcasts. Book a call with a financial planner to see how a professional could help develop an action plan for your money goals. And mark your calendar for the fall of 2015. In October, you can attend Financial Planning Days. These events allow you to book a free session with a financial planner to answer questions you have about your personal finances. You can attend classroom-style informational lectures, too. To reach this milestone of continuing your financial education, make a list of three to five of your most pressing financial questions. Make it your mission to find the answers -- and take action on your new knowledge. 2. Boost Your Income If you're happy in your current position and want to continue progressing in your chosen career path, it's time to think about boosting your income. Make it a goal to negotiate a raise in the new year. Your first step: ensuring that you've actually that raise. Consider your strengths and look at the value you've provided to your company over the last six months to a year. When it's time for your performance review, explain to your boss how you go above and beyond and back up your claims. Not quite there yet? Ask for additional responsibilities. Knock your next project out of the park. Look for innovative ways to get work done and provide solutions to common problems in your position. Taking action now can help you earn more from your job before the end of 2015. 3. Track Your Spending and Create a Plan Yes, some people call it a budget, but I like the term "spending plan" because it sounds less restrictive. It's important to know where your money is currently going and then be able to redirect some of it toward your financial goals. In other words, stop keeping every other receipt and calling that good enough, or trying to keep up with your spending and income in your head. Put a system into place and stick with it this new year. Mint.com is a helpful financial tool that syncs up your debit, savings, credit card accounts and even loans you pay. With Mint, you can set a budget, like $200 a month for groceries, and see how much your groceries actually cost you a month. You will know how much you spent without having a running tally in your head. You can also use spreadsheet templates and input information yourself, or use a more complicated software like You Need a Budget. The tool you choose isn't important -- what's important is that you choose something that helps you track your money, spending and goals -- and it's something you'll stick with throughout the year. 4. Increase Your Net Worth You should also be tracking your net worth. Make this a habit in 2015. Your net worth is simply your assets minus your liabilities. Every time you add to your savings, you're building your net worth. That goes for paying down debt, too. The more debt you repay, the higher your net worth rises. Tracking your net worth allows you to see your entire financial picture all on one page. It also enables you to see your progress -- or identify spots where you need to work to make that progress you want to see. Sometimes we make our saving and debt repayment automatic and so it feels like we're not making much progress, but once you check in on your net worth, you'll see how much your plan is paying off! 5. Start a Side Hustle Capitalize on your skills or monetize a hobby to create a side hustle in 2015. Doing so can help you develop extra income -- which you can use to accelerate your progress to other financial goals. This is a financial milestone that everyone should reach, no matter how much you love your current job (or the full-time business you already run). Side hustles allow you to create diverse streams of income and open you up for new opportunities, experiences, and chances to learn new skills and abilities. It's a way of investing in yourself, while making extra money at the same time. Anyone can benefit from side hustling, including people established in their careers. Not sure where to start? Think about what you're good at and what you enjoy doing. Then consider ways you may be able to sell whatever that is to others. If you need some inspiration, be sure to check out Carrie Smith of Careful Cents, who used her side hustle as a freelance writer to pay off $14,000 of debt before turning her side gig into her full time business. Do you maintain the website at your full-time job? Consider taking those skills to a freelance marketplace. Have specialized knowledge? Monetize what you know by offering consulting services. Artistically inclined or talented in a crafty way? Use an online shop platform like Etsy to host and sell what you can make. When you're thinking about resolutions and goals this time of year, don't forget to consider how you can develop a commitment to improving your finances. Reaching some -- or all -- of these financial milestones in 2015 will allow you to feel more empowered and able to manage your money and hit other big goals in the future. More from Sophia Bera
•4 Best Apps to Organize Your Money in the New Year •Accumulation Trumps Allocation in Your Retirement Portfolio •FSA vs. HSA: What You Need to Know for Health Care

Monday, December 29, 2014

Jim Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Hope Springs Eternal

Search Jim Cramer's "Mad Money" trading recommendations using our exclusive "Mad Money" Stock Screener.

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- In the lull until earnings season, the markets are returning to stocks that do well when the economy does well, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Wednesday. That's despite the battle that rages over high-frequency trading.

Cramer said that investors are once again hopeful the economy is really improving, and that's why Caterpillar (CAT) was able to surge over $100 a share. Strong auto sales also helped General Motors (GM), a stock Cramer owns for his charitable trust, Action Alerts PLUS, end the day in the green. Cramer said if Friday's employment numbers a good, look for these gains to continue.

The markets are also still embroiled in the high-frequency trading debate, Cramer continued. He said these trades continue to meddle in the markets, preventing traders like you and me from getting the best prices possible. Cramer called high-frequency trading a tax on the markets, one investors cannot avoid, sadly. It's unclear whether the SEC feels high-frequency traders fulfill a function or if the agency thinks the issue doesn't matter since it has been around so long. Cramer posited that perhaps the SEC feels that it's OK the markets aren't entirely fair.

No matter what the reason, however, Cramer said the only way to remove the high-frequency "tax" would be to create a new, alternative market where they simply aren't allowed. That notion has already been proposed, and is one Cramer supports. Apple in Limbo Shares of Apple (AAPL), another Action Alerts PLUS holding, are in limbo, Cramer told viewers. Apple is no longer considered a growth stock by many but it also isn't quite considered a value name either. Cramer said Apple certainly qualifies as a value stock, trading at just 12 times earnings while the market overall trades at 17.3 times earning. But even with this paltry multiple, Apple is down 3% so far in 2014 while old-line tech names like Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Oracle (ORCL) are up 18% and 8%, respectively. How can this be? Cramer explained that both HP and Oracle offer investors the promise of a big upside surprise as the economy improves. Apple offers no such promise. So while Apple may be superior in just about every metric that matters, from revenue to earrings to its dividend yield, until the company can jump-start growth or introduce a new product that moves the needle, shares are likely to remain in limbo. To watch replays of Cramer's video segments, visit the Mad Money page on CNBC. To sign up for Jim Cramer's free Booyah! newsletter with all of his latest articles and videos please click here. -- Written by Scott Rutt in Washington, D.C. To email Scott about this article, click here: Scott Rutt Follow Scott on Twitter @ScottRutt or get updates on Facebook, ScottRuttDC

Stock quotes in this article: CAT, GM, AAPL, HPQ, ORCL, NBR, TSN 

Sunday, December 28, 2014

Ask Matt: Can I cash in on 'Duck Dynasty?'

USA TODAY markets reporter Matt Krantz answers a different reader question every weekday. To submit a question, e-mail Matt at mkrantz@usatoday.com.

Q: Can I cash in on Duck Dynasty?

A: Duck Dynasty may be a controversial show that heats up opinions about guns, animal rights and even censorship. But investors can't help but wonder if there's a way to make money from the show's popularity.

The show highlights the life of the Robertson family, which runs the business Duck Commander in Louisiana. Duck Commander makes a variety of hunting gear.

Not only has the show been a hit on TV, but it's also a merchandising sensation. Most recently, the Duck Commander family has said it plans to develop its own line of firearms. For investors, there aren't many direct ways to profit from the phenomenon, though. The Duck Dynasty guns will be made by North Haven, Conn.-based gun maker Mossberg. Mossberg is privately held. Meanwhile, Duck Commander is also a private company. The show is aired by A&E, a joint venture of privately-held Hearst and Disney. But the revenue for Disney is negligible.

TRACK YOUR STOCKS: Get real-time quotes with our free Portfolio Tracker

If there's a play for investors to profit off the popularity of the show, it's by buying shares of companies that benefit indirectly when hunting gets more popular. Wal-Mart is a large seller of Duck Dynasty merchandise, but revenue from the products is too small to really make a difference to the massive retailer and its stock. The gun makers are another option, including Smith & Wesson and Sturm, Ruger. Many of these stocks had strong gains in 2013 as consumers stocked up on guns amid fears of more government regulation, which never came to fruition.

There are also publicly traded retailers that sell hunting gear, such as Cabela's, Big 5 Sporting Goods and Dick's Sporting Goods. But so far, Duck Dynasty remains more of a TV phenomenon than a big development for investors.

Follow Matt Krantz on Twitter: ! @mattkrantz.

5 of Last Week's Biggest Winners

What's better than momentum? Mo' momentum. Let's take a closer look at five of this past week's biggest scorchers.

Company

Dec. 20

Weekly Gain

Ariad Pharmaceuticals  (NASDAQ: ARIA  )

$6.43

62%

Violin Memory  (NYSE: VMEM  )

$3.82

42%

Himax  (NASDAQ: HIMX  )

$13.44

23%

BlackBerry  (NASDAQ: BBRY  )

$7.22

19%

Gigamon  (NYSE: GIMO  )

$29.05

14%

Source: Barron's.

Let's start with Ariad Pharmaceuticals. The biotech soared after the FDA cleared the return to market of its leukemia drug, Iclusig. Instances of blood clots led the regulatory agency to pull Iclusig off the market less than two months ago, but now Ariad can begin selling it again with a more restrictive label.

Violin Memory has lost a lot of ground this quarter, but it bounced back this past week after ousting its CEO and issuing a somewhat encouraging business update. The high-speed data storage specialist is still on track to introduce several new products early next year, targeting profitability by 2015.

Himax moved higher after getting an analyst nod. The supplier of display drivers and other chip solutions has been gaining steam this year as a wearable-computing play, and now its Northland Capital's top pick for 2014. Northland is increasing its price target from $12 to $15 on the prospects of Himax's role in Google Glass and other wearable applications.

BlackBerry was another winner despite posting horrendous quarterly results. It may have posted a brutal plunge in sales, a widening operating loss, and a huge inventory write-down, but the market was encouraged by its move to shift production to China's Foxconn. The cost-cutting move will likely free it from inventory exposure. BlackBerry also closed out the period with more than $3 billion in cash, giving it ample time to reinvent its way back to relevance.

Gigamon bounced back from the prior week's 13% slide, clawing its way back after D.A. Davidson analyst Mark Kelleher had initiated coverage of the developer of data traffic management software with an uninspiring "neutral" rating and $28 price target. This week's bounce was helped out by a partnership with Riverbed Technology that will allow two of their flagship products to work together to enhance their platforms. 

The press release announcing the partnership even included a suggested tweet:

#Riverbed and @gigamon partner to better enhance network and application performance management: rvbd.ly/1kT7cpa #RPM

It's a #SignOfTheTimes, it seems. 

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Saturday, December 27, 2014

Earnings Scheduled For September 17, 2013

FactSet Research Systems (NYSE: FDS) is expected to report its Q4 earnings at $1.21 per share on revenue of $218.93 million.

Tower Group International (NASDAQ: TWGP) is projected to post a Q2 loss at $0.52 per share on revenue of $421.10 million.

Coty (NASDAQ: COTY) is expected to report its Q4 earnings at $0.01 per share on revenue of $1.05 billion.

Sutor Technology Group (NASDAQ: SUTR) is projected to report its Q4 earnings at $0.10 per share on revenue of $152.96 million.

Le Gaga Holdings (NASDAQ: GAGA) is estimated to report its Q4 earnings.

Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE) is expected to post its Q3 earnings at $0.34 per share on revenue of $1.01 billion.

ALCO Stores (NASDAQ: ALCS) is projected to post its Q2 earnings.

Digital Cinema Destinations (NASDAQ: DCIN) is estimated to post a Q4 loss at $0.11 per share on revenue of $11.17 million.

Thursday, December 25, 2014

Why Merck Is Poised to Keep Poppin'

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, drug behemoth Merck (NYSE: MRK  ) has earned a respected four-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at Merck and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

Merck facts

Headquarters (founded)

Whitehouse Station, N.J. (1891)

Market Cap

$141.0 billion

Industry

Pharmaceuticals

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$46.2 billion

Management

Chairman/CEO Kenneth Frazier
CFO Peter Kellogg

Return on Equity (average, past 3 years)

8.7%

Cash/Debt

$16.0 billion / $20.8 billion

Dividend Yield

3.7%

Competitors

GlaxoSmithKline
Novartis
Pfizer

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 93% of the 2,924 members who have rated Merck believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward.   

Just last week, one of those Fools, PrInAl, succinctly summed up the Merck bull case for our community:

The pharmacy business is not going anyplace. The company has opportunely announced an enormous buyback plan, recently including $5B worth of stock from Goldman Sachs. ... Downside is protected somewhat by a dividend yield closer to 4% than 3%. Merck has to deal with patent expirations on products, but so do all its competitors. Its pipeline is robust, however.

This titan of the pharmaceutical industry stumbled into 2013 and continues to battle patent expirations and pipeline problems. Is Merck still a solid dividend play, or should investors be looking elsewhere? In a new premium research report on Merck, The Fool tackles all of the company's moving parts, its major market opportunities, and reasons to both buy and sell. To find out more click here to claim your copy today.


Wednesday, December 24, 2014

The Hepatitis C Drug Developer That Crushed Gilead Sciences, Inc. in 2014 (Hint: It's Not AbbVie)

For shareholders of Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD  ) it's practically been a dream year. Shares rose close to 40%, tacking on roughly $45 billion in market value, following the successful approval and launch of oral hepatitis C drugs Sovaldi and Harvoni.

Source: Gilead Sciences.

Gilead's giant leap forward
Sovaldi and Harvoni both represent major breakthroughs in HCV patient quality of care in that neither Sovaldi (geared toward genotype 2 and 3 HCV) nor Harvoni (targeted at genotype 1) require the use of IV interferon, a medicine that commonly causes flu-like symptoms in users for the duration of treatment (often 12 to 24 weeks). Additionally, Harvoni, which is nothing more than a cocktail drug of Sovaldi and ledipasvir, can be given without the need for a ribavirin. In short, we're seeing convenience improve and side effects lessen in a big way.

Yet, Sovaldi and Harvoni brought something else to the table that was sorely needed for HCV patients: improved efficacy. In many instances Sovaldi and Harvoni delivered sustained virologic responses of 90% or higher. In other words, patients had a good chance of being cured of HCV, a chronic and potentially debilitating disease, compared to perhaps half of all patients just three years ago based on the old standard of care.

Because Harvoni was approved in mid-October, we don't have specific sales data on it as of yet. However, Sovaldi sales have been off the charts. In just its first nine months on pharmacy shelves, Sovaldi has delivered $8.55 billion in sales, the fastest ramp-up on record. Furthermore, at the pace Sovaldi sales are on this year, it could wind up being the second best selling drug of 2014. What's more, it's possible that Harvoni could be the better selling drug of the two once it's fully ramped up.

This hepatitis drug developer crushed Gilead in 2014
Despite Gilead's incredible performance, one hepatitis C drug developer had its stock perform even better.

Before reading any further, do you have any guesses?

Did you say AbbVie or Enanta Pharmaceuticals? If so, keep guessing.

GILD Chart

Maybe Merck with its combo of MK-5172 and MK-8742? Not quite. Bristol-Myers Squibb with daclatasvir? Nope! Johnson & Johnson with Olysio? Still not it!

Give up?

With a gain year-to-date of 328% -- that's three hundred and twenty eight percent -- clinical-stage HCV-focused Achillion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ACHN  ) absolutely crushed Gilead in total return this year. Amazingly, it did so without having a single product on pharmacy shelves.

GILD Chart

Why Achillion scorched higher in 2014
There are a number of reasons why Achillion shares have found new life in 2014 after struggling mightily in the previous year.

First, hepatitis C is a global disease that affects 150 million people according to the World Health Organization. Even Gilead, AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck, and Achillion combined couldn't treat everyone in a matter of just one or two years. In just the first nine months since the entry of Sovaldi, Gilead managed to treat just 117,000 patients. Therefore the implication is the market potential exists for a handful of players, including Achillion, to prosper.


Source: Achillion Pharmaceuticals, June 2014.

Secondly, the results for Achillion's NS5A inhibitor ACH-3102 have been fantastic thus far, even if the patient pool is small. In November Achillion announced a combination study involving ACH-3102 and Gilead's Sovaldi that was administered without ribavirin to 12 genotype 1 patients. As presented at the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases annual meeting, all 12 patients experienced a sustained virologic response (i.e., no detectable levels of disease) after a 12-week treatment course.

Lastly, Achillion has received what I refer to as a "buyers boost" since all of its complementary clinical-stage rivals have now been bought out. Gilead Sciences purchased Pharmasset in 2011, netting it Sovaldi; Bristol-Myers Squibb purchased Inhibitex and got burned badly on that deal since its lead drug wound up being scrapped for safety reasons; and Merck gobbled up Idenix Pharmaceuticals for a 239% premium from its prior-day closing price. The opinion among investors is that Achillion is next to be purchased. Considering its steady phase 2 combination results and the massive scope of the HCV market, the idea of a buyout isn't out of the question.

Caveat emptor
While Achillion was an absolute superstar in 2014, there's a chance it may not fare as well next year.

Source: Flickr user Eugene Zemlyanskly.

For starters, it's never a good idea to allow a rumor to be the basis of your investment thesis. Although many of its peers have been bought out, there are no guarantees that Achillion will find a suitor willing to pay a premium for ACH-3102 and the company's remaining HCV pipeline. Many large pharmaceutical companies are already working on HCV products of their own, meaning Achillion's pipeline may not be needed. If the buyout rumors surrounding Achillion die down, its share price could falter.

Also, Achilion's had a shaky past with the Food and Drug Administration. Achillion's sovaprevir wound up on clinical hold by the FDA for nearly a year due to safety concerns, echoing similar problems experienced by rival Idenix. It's concerning that the company has yet to successfully get any of its developing drugs past phrase 2.

That being said, Achillion is clearly a name to watch going forward, especially if ACH-3102 meets or exceeds current expectations. I, for one, won't be looking for a repeat performance in 2015 and much prefer Gilead Sciences here. Still, there's big move potential for both buyers and short-sellers that should command the attention of Wall Street and investors.

1 great healthcare stock to buy for 2015 and beyond
Healthcare stocks soared in 2014, and 2015 is shaping up to be another great year for stocks. But if you want to make sure you're buying one of the best healthcare stocks, you need to know where to start. That's why The Motley Fool's chief investment officer just published a brand-new research report that reveals his top stock for the year ahead. To get the full story on this year's stock -- completely free -- simply click here.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Lululemon: It’s the Competition, Silly

FBR’s Susan Anderson and Andrew Schmidt like Lululemon Athletica’s (LULU) brand and culture but worry about its product mix and competition. They explain:

Bloomberg News

We are initiating coverage of lululemon athletica inc. with a Market Perform rating and a 12-month price target of $40 per share. We believe lululemon has a significant opportunity to increase revenue via domestic and international store and e-commerce growth, as well as men's, women's, and kids’ product expansion. Yet, we believe that the key to future profitability is the product engine revamp, where lululemon plans to design more innovative, on-trend, and differentiated products. While we are somewhat confident in lululemon's ability to grow revenue, we believe it may be difficult to return to historical peak operating margins. We acknowledge
that the company has a good brand that resonates with consumers, but we cannot ignore the rapidly growing presence of competitors that are aggressively expanding into women's activewear (Nike (NKE), Under Armour (UA), Athleta, L Brands (LB), Gap (GPS), etc.) and are well established in men's. We think that the growing domestic and international markets will provide growth opportunities (international growth acceleration could take three to four years), but increasing competition may necessitate lower price points (especially in the athleisure area, where lululemon has increased its focus). We remain on the sidelines and look to 2015 for evidence that the systems implementation, revamped product design process, and new products will increase revenue and begin to expand margins.

Shares of Lululemon have gained 2.3% to $43.76 at 3:07 p.m., while Nike has dropped 1% to $93.70, Under Armour has risen 1.1% to $67.02, L Brands has fallen 1.2% to $75.40 and Gap has advanced 2.5% to $38.84.

Monday, December 22, 2014

IBM On the Right Track for Continued Growth

International Business Machines (IBM) reported solid 34% growth in its earnings for the second quarter. IBM displayed comprehensive progress in cloud computing, Big Data, Analytics, security and technology fields that are part of its transformation model. However, its core business such as hardware, computer service and weak software revenue remains at risk, and pressurized its revenue in total.

A closer look at the results

Nevertheless, IBM topped the analysts' estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Its net income rose 28% in the quarter to $4.1 billion, or diluted earnings of $4.32 per share, compared to $3.2 billion, or diluted earnings of $3.22 per share in the same quarter last year. However, its revenue dipped nearly -2.25% to $24.36 billion year over year. Analysts had been modeling diluted earnings of $4.30 per share on revenue of $24.13 billion.

Looking forward, the company is investing heavily in various potential markets it has under its belt such as cloud and security, software solutions, application outsourcing, and mobile business that should drive its growth. Moreover, it's strategic move such as broadening its SoftLayer cloud hubs business, its new platform-as-a-service to gear up deployment of hybrid clouds, expanding ecosystem, and enlarging its mobile business, highlight sound prospects for the company that should help the IBM to deliver good margins in the future.

Investments

In addition, IBM has invested $1.2 billion in its SoftLayer cloud hubs business, and launched BlueMix as its new platform-as-a-service that will enhance its capabilities in the deployment of hybrid clouds. IBM has also opened a number of new SoftLayer data centers across the world. IBM has key cloud centers in almost all regions and the company is determined to double its SoftLayer centers with 40 cloud datacenters in more than 15 countries.

Its front office transformation has been very impressive as IDC has ranked IBM number one in both Overall Business Consulting and Cloud Professional Services. Its mobile consulting services has been ranked number one by Forrester, which will help company to gain further market share in the segment.

IBM also announced divestment of its customer care or BPO, and the company is all set to sell its industry standard low-end server business to its partner Lenovo, which will allow IBM to right-size the business to the market dynamics and further enhance its growth.

Moreover, IBM has just announced an investment of $3 billion in research and early-stage development over the next five years to develop next-generation chip technologies that will add value to its emerging cloud, big data, mobile computing, security and cognitive systems. The company has just announced New Big Data capabilities on its IBM cloud marketplace. These new cloud services should help the enterprises with added interactive content which are usable and secure, and can deliver better results and improve the decision-making process. The enterprises now will be able to easily access this new Big Data services as it is available on any device.

Additionally, IBM has formed a strategic partnership with Apple to provide a new level of business value from mobility for enterprise clients that should fuel up its sales for the enterprise business in the upcoming quarters. IBM now looks strong with this partnership to deliver a new class of enterprise ready, MobileFirst business applications for iOS.

These strategic initiatives will also allow IBM to expand its mobile device productivity, enabling big data and analytics at the point of contact with its consultants and other client-facing specialist. These moves will certainly enhance its enterprise capabilities with its unique strength and innovations that will create a competitive edge over its peers in the emerging markets of enterprise IT.

IBM has also ramped up the shipment for its POWER8, and expanded its OpenPOWER consortium during the quarter. The company now has more than 36 members across 10 countries, including nine in China. This membership is more diverse and includes chip designers, hardware component OEMs, system vendors, middleware and software providers, opening great opportunity for the company to tap the underlying growth in emerging markets such as cloud computing, Big Data, Analytics, security and technology. These alliance members can now design and control their own encryption, accessing high end technology though Power architecture, which is now available for open development and to integrate new designs into their hardware platforms.

More catalysts

IBM also looks good in its Flash System with a few new launches such as V7000 update to its Storwize portfolio and Flash-enabled DS8K. Flash system had achieved a double digit growth in the quarter and revenue from its Storwize portfolio now has doubled. IBM also sees a continuous demand for its Flash System across the world that should help the company to offset its underperforming segments such as hardware and computer service.

IBM also witnessed strong momentum for its security software middleware that is driving its software performance. It continues to see strong client demand and stunning r

Sunday, December 21, 2014

Pulp Fiction: The Broken Promises of Biofuels

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For much of the past decade, the biofuels industry in the US grew exponentially. During this period, the US became the world's leading producer of transportation fuel made from recently harvested plant material, producing about 44% of the world's biofuels supply in 2013. Brazil was a distant second at 24% of the global total.

The US government has encouraged the use of biofuels since the Energy Tax Act of 1978, which was an exemption for ethanol from the federal excise tax on gasoline. Some sort of tax exemption for ethanol remained in place at varying levels until the end of 2011. This exemption helped slowly grow US ethanol production, which reached 1.6 billion gallons by 2000 and 3.9 billion gallons by 2005.

But the turning point for the US biofuels industry came when Congress mandated ethanol usage in the Energy Policy Act of 2005. The act created the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), which required increasing volumes of biofuel to be blended into the nation's fuel supply.

Congress accelerated the adoption schedule with the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. The result was explosive industry growth, particularly in the US corn ethanol industry, from 2005 until 2011. In 2011 some of the tax credits were allowed to expire, but the mandates under the RFS remain in place and will keep ethanol blending above 12 billion gallons per year for the foreseeable future.

140902telusethanolprod

But corn ethanol has long been viewed as an interim and partial solution as the world awaits the commercial development of advanced second-generation biofuels. Unlike corn ethanol and biodiesel, which are made from food crops, advanced biofuels can be made from non-food biomass such as wood chips, farm and forestry residues, or from th! e biomass fraction of municipal solid waste.

The US government has helped set high expectations for these advanced biofuels. The RFS stipulates that advanced biofuels must make up 22 billion gallons of the 36 billion gallons of biofuel required to be blended annually by 2022. That's a lot considering there was no commercial advanced biofuel industry in place when the law was passed (which remains true for the most part to this day.)

There are a number of options for converting biomass into advanced biofuel. An early contender was cellulosic ethanol. One of the major fractions of plant material is cellulose, which is comprised of long chains of sugars. In 1819, Henri Braconnot, a French chemist, first discovered how to break cellulose chains into individual sugars by treating biomass with sulfuric acid. These sugars could then be fermented to ethanol in similar fashion to corn or sugarcane today.

This technique was used by the Germans to first commercialize cellulosic ethanol from wood in 1898. First commercialization in the US took place in 1910 when the Standard Alcohol Company built a cellulosic ethanol plant in Georgetown, South Carolina to process waste wood from a lumber mill. Standard Alcohol later built a second plant in Fullerton, Louisiana. Each plant produced 5,000 to 7,000 gallons of ethanol per day from wood waste, and both were in production for several years before poor economics forced the plants to close.

Fast forward 100 years and a number of companies were once again vying to be the "first" to produce commercial cellulosic ethanol in the US to meet the Renewable Fuel Standard mandate. Despite mandates in 2010 and 2011 requiring the blending of 100 million and then 250 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol into the fuel supply, no qualifying cellulosic ethanol was produced in either year. Those unmet mandates were based on promises from would-be cellulosic ethanol producers who never delivered.

In 2012, the first qualifying batch (i.e., the first batc! h qualifi! ed by the Environmental Protection Agency to receive cellulosic biofuel tax credits) of cellulosic ethanol was produced when Blue Sugars Corporation (previously KL Energy) produced some 20,000 gallons of cellulosic biofuel in April 2012. Following this, no further cellulosic ethanol was produced in 2012, and Blue Sugars declared bankruptcy a year later.

A number of companies are currently building demonstration or small-scale commercial cellulosic ethanol facilities. These companies include DuPont (NYSE: DD), Abengoa (NASDAQ: ABGB), and privately-owned POET. These projects have faced delays and cost overruns, and could have a tough time in a market that presently has idle capacity for the production of lower-cost corn ethanol.

However, there are other advanced biofuels options that result in gasoline and diesel as the final products. The market for these so-called drop-in fuels is presently much larger than the market for ethanol, and the current fuel infrastructure is more compatible with these fuels.

One of these routes is called fast pyrolysis, the scientific study of which dates back at least 50 years. Fast pyrolysis occurs when biomass is heated rapidly to about 500° C. At this temperature, the components of the biomass break down in seconds into a pyrolysis oil (often called bio-oil) and char (which resembles charcoal).

The pyrolysis oil that is produced in this process resembles crude oil, but is initially as distinct from hydrocarbons as is grape juice from Chianti. Petroleum, or crude oil, was formed from the remains of ancient microscopic animal and plant life that accumulated on sea floors. Over time, sediments piled up over these remains, and the pressure of the sediments and the heat inside the earth gradually converted them into a complex mixture of chemicals that we know today as petroleum. If petroleum is exposed to high enough temperatures, it can be cracked to natural gas.

Notably, crude oil is made up of a great variety of hydrocarbons. Most of the comp! onents of! crude oil are composed of hydrogen and carbon only, and many of these are present in very long chains. The simplest component of crude oil is methane, the simplest hydrocarbon molecule with 4 hydrogen atoms attached to a central carbon atom. As the carbon chains get longer, you find molecules that are primarily found in gasoline (mostly hydrocarbons with 5 to 9 carbon atoms), kerosene (mostly hydrocarbons with 10 to 16 carbon atoms), diesel (mostly hydrocarbons with 12 to 20 carbon atoms), and fuel oil (mostly hydrocarbons with 20 to 30 carbon atoms). Some of the heaviest hydrocarbons found in crude oil can be found in the material sold as asphalt and roofing tar.

These chain lengths are important, and the fact that oxygen is generally not present in these chains is important. Like crude oil, pyrolysis oil is a complex mixture, but whereas crude oil is composed primarily of hydrogen and carbon, the compounds of pyrolysis oil contain a lot of oxygen. These compounds include aldehydes, carboxylic acids (like acetic acid), ketones, alcohols, sugars, and pyrolytic lignin, and their volumetric energy content is far lower than that of petroleum.

Despite a lower energy density — a gallon of pyrolysis oil may contain only around half the energy of a gallon of oil — pyrolysis oil can be converted to gasoline and diesel. Like the study of pyrolysis oil itself, the scientific study of pyrolysis oil upgrading can be traced back decades. Converting pyrolysis oil to diesel and gasoline requires further chemical processing, which adds cost, but also tends to fracture the components of pyrolysis oil (many of which are already short-chains) into even shorter hydrocarbon chains that are too short to be blended into gasoline. The result is that the ultimate yields of gasoline and diesel from biomass are quite low.

In a presentation several years ago, Iowa State Professor Robert C. Brown (with whom I regularly correspond) showed that it takes about 140 pounds of biomass (like wood chips) to! produce ! about 100 pounds of pyrolysis oil, which has a water content of about 20%. This pyrolysis oil then requires 4-5 pounds of hydrogen (almost exclusively produced from natural gas) to produce 30 pounds of gasoline and 8 pounds of diesel. More than 50% of the starting mass is converted to water and carbon dioxide, while another 15% is converted to light gases like methane.

Thus, while the technology has been known for decades and is viewed as promising, there are some substantial hurdles in place that have kept fast pyrolysis from economically competing with crude oil. A 2012 study by the Department of Energy (DOE) estimated the cost of producing gasoline and diesel from pyrolysis oil at that time in a commercial plant (at a scale that still doesn't exist) of $4.55/gallon. But the DOE projected that over time, the buildout of a number of commercial plants could drive the cost of production down to $2.32 by 2017 as the technology is further refined. The largest cost reductions were assumed to be in the upgrading step.

140902telpyrolysis

A number of companies have produced pyrolysis oil for years. Canadian firm Ensyn has been producing pyrolysis oil commercially for 25 years. UOP — a subsidiary of Honeywell (NYSE: HON) and a major supplier of upgrading technology and equipment for oil refiners — has developed technology for upgrading pyrolysis oil into hydrocarbon fuels. In 2008 UOP formed a partnership with Ensyn called Envergent Technologies to commercialize the biomass to pyrolysis oil to drop-in fuels pathway.

Commercialization all the way to gasoline and diesel remains elusive however. One company that has attempted to commercialize a variant of the fast pyrolysis/upgrading pathway is KiOR (Nasdaq: KIOR), a biofuel company that famed venture capitalist Vinod Khosla took public in 2011.

Despite the th! eoretical! promise of the pathway, and despite counting Bill Gates among its investors, KiOR has struggled and is on the cusp of bankruptcy. The share price has fallen more than 99% since its IPO. In next week's follow-up article, I will take a deeper dive into what happened with KiOR, and discuss the lessons for investors from KiOR's experience.

Conclusions

Despite optimistic federal mandates that required the addition of advanced biofuels to the fuel supply, commercialization has been slow to develop. Ethanol produced from cellulose was initially envisioned as a likely candidate for making a major contribution to the mandates, but project delays, overruns, and bankruptcy in the case of the first company to produce a qualifying batch of cellulosic ethanol have all tempered the initial enthusiasm. A different pathway called fast pyrolysis that results in drop-in fuels as the final product after upgrading has emerged as a contender, but this pathway has also struggled to gain a foothold.

In next week's Energy Letter, I will review the journey of one company attempting to make advanced drop-in fuels, and answer the question of whether this seemingly promising sector of the energy business has any attractive prospects for investors.

(Follow Robert Rapier on Twitter, LinkedIn, or Facebook.)

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Worst Things to Buy Before Your Kid Heads Back to School

Whether your child is heading off to kindergarten or college, you don't want to send him or her to the classroom without the necessary supplies. So you visit your favorite online retailers or head to the mall to buy notebooks, pencils, folders, clothing and maybe even big-ticket electronic items. But buying all the items you think your child needs before he or she heads back to school can be a mistake.

SEE ALSO: 10 Ways to Save on Back-to-School Shopping

Some school-related items won't drop in price until after the back-to-school sales are over. Plus, if you rush to buy everything now, you might discover that many of those purchases weren't even necessary once school starts. So to avoid spending more than you have to, here are seven things you should avoid buying before your child heads back to school.

Fall apparel. Fall clothing already is appearing in stores, and some retailers might offer small discounts on some items during back-to-school sales or over the long Labor Day weekend. But markdowns of 40% or more likely won't show up until mid- to late fall. Not only will you spend more than necessary if you buy fall clothes for your kids now, you might end up purchasing things your kids decide aren't cool enough because the other kids are wearing something else, says Kristin Cook, managing editor of Ben's Bargains. If your kids need clothes, she recommends taking advantage of ongoing clearance sales on summer clothes that can be worn the first month or two of school when it's still hot outside.

HDTVs. You might not consider a television as a back-to-school purchase. But if your child is heading off to college, she might ask for a small HDTV for her dorm room or apartment. The summer months are usually a bad time for TV deals, though, says Mark LoCastro, spokesperson for DealNews.com. Wait until November when HDTV prices are the lowest of the year during Black Friday sales.

School supplies. Wait until you get a supply list from your child's teacher before purchasing anything. Otherwise you could end up with the wrong type of supplies or an abundance of things your child won't use. If possible, try to get by for a couple of weeks with what your child still has from the previous year because big-box retailers such as Target and Wal-mart will dramatically mark down school supplies after Labor Day, Cook says.

Smart phones. Even elementary-age kids are taking phones to school now. So if your child has been pestering you to buy one, hold off until later in the fall. After new models are revealed, older versions will be available for deep discounts, says Jon Lal, founder and CEO of BeFrugal.com. In particular, don't rush to buy the new Amazon Fire Phone, LoCastro says. DealNews.com research shows that Android phones, even popular ones, see discounts of about 50% within the first two to three months after release. There's a good chance that Amazon will discount its Android phone in order to remain competitive in a crowded market, LoCastro says.

Tablets. You won't see deals on many tablets now because demand is high, says Joe Warner, assistant managing editor of Ben's Bargains. Wait until Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving) to find deals, he says. Or consider buying your child a laptop, instead, especially if he's heading off to college. With so many sales on laptops now through the start of school, they're cheaper and more practical than tablets, LoCastro says.

Textbooks. Don't buy textbooks for your college students until they've attended one class and are sure they won't drop it, says Trae Bodge, senior editor of RetailMeNot.com. Look for used, rather than new, textbooks on sites BigWords.com and CampusBooks.com. See How to Cut Your Textbook Costs in Half – or More for more ways to save.

Trendy gear. If you buy your child a backpack or lunchbox before school starts, you run the risk of having your child change her mind about what she wants after she sees what the other kids are using to bring their books and lunch to school, says Regina Novickis, savings expert at PromotionalCodes.com. Encourage your child to use her current gear for a few weeks. Then you can make a safe investment knowing your child has what she wants, Novickis says. Plus, by waiting, you might score discounts on items that didn't sell during the back-to-school rush.



Thursday, December 18, 2014

Mid-Day Market Update: FMC Slips On Weak Outlook; Integrys Energy Shares Surge

Related AKS Mid-Afternoon Market Update: FMC Slips On Weak Outlook; Integrys Energy Shares Surge AK Steel Unveils Q2 Outlook - Analyst Blog

Midway through trading Monday, the Dow traded down 0.19 percent to 16,915.55 while the NASDAQ declined 0.01 percent to 4,367.74. The S&P also fell, dropping 0.08 percent to 1,961.27.

Leading and Lagging Sectors

Monday morning, the basic materials sector proved to be a source of strength for the market. Leading the sector was strength from AK Steel Holding (NYSE: AKS) and Thompson Creek Metals Company (NYSE: TC).

Telecommunications services shares fell around 0.65 percent in trading on Monday. Top losers in the sector included NQ Mobile (NYSE: NQ), down 4 percent, and ORBCOMM (NASDAQ: ORBC), off 5 percent.

Top Headline

Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) announced its plans to buy Micros Systems (NASDAQ: MCRS) in a $5.3 billion deal.

The offer price of $68 per share represents a 3.4% premium over Micros' closing price on Friday.

Equities Trading UP

Integrys Energy Group (NYSE: TEG) shares shot up 12.90 percent to $68.81 after Wisconsin Energy (NYSE: WEC) announced its plans to acquire Integrys Energy Group in a deal valued at $9.1 billion.

Shares of Central Garden & Pet Company (NASDAQ: CENT) got a boost, shooting up 9.22 percent to $9.83 after Harbinger Group offered to buy Central Garden & Pet Co for $10 per share.

MICROS Systems (NASDAQ: MCRS) shares were also up, gaining 3.36 percent to $67.98 after Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) announced its plans to buy MICROS for $68 per share.

Equities Trading DOWN

Shares of Meritor (NYSE: MTOR) were 12.47 percent to $12.77 after the company reached a $500 million settlement with Eaton (NYSE: ETN) related to an anti-trust suit filed in 2006. The company’s board also authorized a repurchase of up to $210 million.

Ixia (NASDAQ: XXIA) shares tumbled 1.68 percent to $11.67 after the company reported its Q4 earnings of $0.15 per share on revenue of $120.60 million. Ixia now expected Q1 sales of $109.0 million to $113.0 million.

FMC (NYSE: FMC) was down, falling 3.65 percent to $72.02 after the company lowered its FY14 earnings forecast and issued a weak Q2 outlook.

Commodities

In commodity news, oil traded down 0.77 percent to $106.01, while gold traded up 0.02 percent to $1,316.90.

Silver traded down 0.26 percent Monday to $20.94, while copper rose 0.90 percent to $3.14.

Eurozone

European shares were lower today.

The eurozone’s STOXX 600 declined 0.51 percent, the Spanish Ibex Index dropped 0.33 percent, while Italy’s FTSE MIB Index fell 1.33 percent.

Meanwhile, the German DAX declined 0.66 percent and the French CAC 40 dropped 0.57 percent while UK shares slipped 0.36 percent.

Economics

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.21 in May, versus economists’ expectations for a reading of 0.20.

The flash reading of Markit PMI manufacturing index rose to a reading of 57.5 in June versus a reading of 56.4 in May. However, economists were expecting a reading of 56.0.

Sales of existing homes rose 4.9% to an annual rate of 4.89 million in May. However, economists were estimating a sales rate of 4.74 million.

Posted-In: Earnings News Eurozone Futures Commodities Economics Intraday Update Markets

© 2014 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Chrysler, General Motors Post Sales Gains in November

Auto Sales Chrysler Charles Krupa/AP DETROIT -- Chrysler and General Motors each posted U.S. sales gains last month, strong signs that Black Friday promotions and falling gas prices drove U.S. auto sales higher in November. Chrysler (FCAU) sales were up 20 percent to nearly 171,000 vehicles, helping the company to its best November in 13 years, while GM sales rose 6 percent to nearly 226,000. Chrysler was led by the 200 midsize sedan with sales that more than doubled to over 14,000. It sold nearly 36,000 Ram pickups, an increase of 21 percent for its top-selling vehicle. Jeep Cherokee small SUV sales rose 67 percent to nearly 17,000. At GM (GM), the Chevrolet Silverado pickup was the top seller with sales up nearly 25 percent to almost 43,000. GMC Sierra pickup sales rose 57 percent to nearly 23,000, and Chevy Cruze compact car sales were up 26 percent to nearly 23,000. The TrueCar.com auto pricing site predicts that total U.S. sales last month will reach 1.3 million, up around 4 percent from a year ago and the fastest pace since August. The hot sales are being fueled by zero-percent financing and rebates. But the sales are still profitable for automakers due to high transaction prices. Analysts predict that Black Friday promotions started early and helped the month close strong, and falling gas prices boosted sales of SUVs. TrueCar President John Krafcik said deals -- such as zero-percent financing on new Chevrolets or a $3,500 credit on a new BMW -- drew buyers, along with hot-selling new vehicles like the Cherokee and Toyota Camry. Despite the deals, it was a profitable month for the industry, with consumers poised to set new spending records. As of mid-November, buyers were spending an average of $30,874 per vehicle, or $165 more than the previous record of $30,709 in October, according to consulting firms J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. That was partly because buyers were loading up their vehicles with extras like adaptive cruise control and navigation, and also because low gas prices convinced many buyers to pick pricier SUVs. Gas prices fell 23 cents in November to a four-year low of $2.76 per gallon, according to AAA. Combined record transaction prices with strong new-vehicle retail sales has November on pace for a record month for consumer spending on new vehicles at $33.3 billion. That's $1.1 billion more than the previous record for the month of November set in 2013. Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. More from The Associated Press
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Friday, November 14, 2014

So, you think you're rational?

Israel and Palestine have been in bitter conflict for decades. Stanford psychologist Lee Ross once showed why problems like this last so long with so little progress.

Ross and his colleagues took peace proposals written by Israeli and Palestinian negotiators and swapped the authors' names. He then asked Israeli citizens what they thought of each proposal. "The Israelis liked the Palestinian proposal attributed to Israel more than they liked the Israeli proposal attributed to the Palestinians," Ross said. Palestinians analyzing proposals attributed to the wrong author did the same. The two sides in Ross's studies weren't fighting each other. They were fighting a more complicated enemy: their own opinions.

Another psychologist, Geoffrey Cohen, did a similar study in the U.S. He showed Democratic voters supported Republican proposals when they were attributed to fellow Democrats more than they supported Democratic proposals attributed to Republicans (and the opposite for Republican voters).

People disagree with each other because they think the other side is biased into making bad decisions. They rarely assume that they, themselves, might be just as biased. Psychologists have a name for this: blind-spot bias. It's a bias that prevents us from realizing how biased we are. And it is pervasive in investing.

Behavioral finance is one of the fastest-growing branches of psychology. People love reading about flaws people fall for when handling money. But few of them admit, or even realize, that they're reading about themselves.

Everyone wants to think they are rational, and biases are things that afflict other people. "The brain is designed with blind spots," Caroll Tavris and Elliot Aronson write in their book Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me), "and one of its cleverest tricks is to confer on us the comforting delusion that we, personally, do not have any." This is why so many of us are not only bad with money, but make the same mistakes over and over again. We're blind to our blind! ness.

"People see themselves as less susceptible to bias than others," writes Princeton psychologist Emily Pronin. Part of this is because we judge others based solely on their actions, but when judging ourselves we're flooded with internal dialogue justifying our own bad decisions. If I see you buying stocks when the market is booming and selling after a crash, I assume you're an emotional klutz. But if I did the same thing, I could tell myself a story about how this new market is rigged, and it's rational to get out now before things go even lower. Because people can reason and tell themselves stories, they're able to make up all kinds of excuses to justify their mistakes – even the same mistakes they criticize others for.

Ironically, the smarter you are, the worse this gets. In one study, blind-spot bias was shown to be positively correlated with things like SAT scores and other measures of intelligence – the smarter you are, the more blind you are to your own biases. Why? Because the smarter you are, the more elaborate and sophisticated stories you can tell yourself to justify your bad decisions. An average investor could never convince themselves that leveraging your balance sheet 30-to-1 with subprime mortgages was good idea. You need to be Harvard stupid to do that. The more rational we think we are, the more self-deluding we engage in, and the more biased we become.

The sad truth is, there might not be much we can do about this. Some biases are hardwired from birth. Stephan Siegel of the University of Washington and a colleague compared 4,600 sets of identical twins, who are nearly genetic duplicates, to fraternal twins, who aren't. Looking at investing behaviors like risk aversion, lack of diversification, and portfolio turnover, identical twins were about twice as likely as fraternal twins to behave like their sibling. "Genetic differences explain up to 45% of the remaining variation across individual investors, after controlling for observable individual characteristics,! " the res! earchers wrote. "Investment biases are manifestations of innate and evolutionary ancient features of human behavior." Daniel Kahneman, who won the Nobel Prize studying biases, once wrote: "Despite 45 years of work in the field, I am still inclined to make over-confident predictions." It's just part of who he is, and who most of us are.

Those least susceptible to biases share a common trait: they're skeptical of their own beliefs. Humility is the ultimate antidote of biases, and the most rational people are those who realize how irrational they can be. Investors with the best track records are often the ones willing to say "I don't know," "I screwed up," "Maybe you're right," and "I was wrong." They're comfortable changing their minds and abandoning past beliefs. George Soros once said: "I think that my conceptual framework, which basically emphasizes the importance of misconceptions, makes me extremely critical of my own decisions. I know that I am bound to be wrong, and therefore am more likely to correct my own mistakes." It's a neat trick, if you can pull it off.

The Motley Fool is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news, analysis and commentary designed to help people take control of their financial lives. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

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Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Should Domino's and Papa John's Fear Pizza Hut's Big Menu Changes?

Until now the differences between Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM  ) Pizza Hut, Domino's (NYSE: DPZ  ) , and Papa John's (NASDAQ: PZZA  ) have been mostly a matter of personal preference. Aside from the occasional special offer or novelty pie, all three chains offer a basic take on pizza.

That has changed as Pizza Hut, the lagging member of this trio of mediocre national pizza purveyors, has radically overhauled its menu. The company, which in recent years has resorted to stuffing cheese into its crusts, has added a wealth of new choices built on the idea that customers want customization. It's pizza on the Chipotle model with choices including 10 different crust flavors, six sauces, and a variety of new toppings.

Favorites like the Meat Lover's Pizza will remain, but customers will now be able to order it with a variety of enhancements. So, for people who want their pepperoni and sausage with honey Sriracha sauce and "Ginger Boom Boom" or "Curried Away" crust, Pizza Hut will have it for them.

The new Cherry Pepper Bombshell pizza by Pizza Hut Source: Pizza Hut

Why is Pizza Hut doing this?
Pizza Hut has reported sales declines for each of the last eight quarters and this new menu is an attempt to turn things around. "This is the biggest change we've ever made," Chief Marketing Officer Carrie Walsh told USA TODAY. "We're redefining the category."

Pizza Hut needed to do something; as it has struggled, Domino's and Papa John's have been chugging along nicely. In the third quarter Domino's posted 7.7% domestic same-store sales growth year over year and growth of 7.1% internationally, marking the 83rd consecutive quarter of international same-store sales growth. In its third quarter, Papa John's posted a 7.4% gain in its North American stores while gaining 5.5% internationally.

Will it work?
One industry analyst told USA Today the chain might be trying to do too much too fast. "It would appear that the brand that has lost touch with the consumer is trying to change too much overnight," Darren Tristano, executive vice president at Technomic, was quoted as saying.

Pizza Hut might be aiming to please customers with a shift to Chipotle-like customization, but it's going to be a challenge for a Yum! Brands property to gain a similar reputation. Chipotle has succeeded not just because it offers customization, but because it has a well-known commitment to quality food. Neither Pizza Hut nor sister chains Taco Bell and KFC have reputations based on offering good food. Pizza Hut may find that simply adding trendy flavors like Sriracha may not be enough to win quality-conscious millennials.

On the plus side, the chain will be adding new toppings including banana peppers, cherry peppers, and spinach. On the negative, filed under "please don't insult our intelligence," the pizza purveyor will be renaming a number of its standard toppings, ostensibly to make them more appealing. The customer who cares where Chipotle sources its beef from may not be fooled by Pizza Hut renaming black olives as "Mediterranean black olives" or red onions being dubbed "fresh red onions," even though nothing has changed.

Can Pizza Hut be reinvented?
While Domino's rebuilt its brand by revamping its pizza a few years ago, the company just improved its recipe, it did not radically change its menu. What Pizza Hut is doing amounts to a massive change in direction, an attempt to differentiate itself from its two major competitors.

Pizza Hut's moves might even send some of its customers running for its rivals. Though the chain will still be selling "normal" pizzas, it runs the risk of confusing people who just want a plain old pepperoni pie and do not want to have to wade through a wealth of options. Those customers may well switch to Domino's or Papa Johns.

The potential gain however is not in stealing traditional, undiscerning pizza eaters from its rivals, it's a bigger growth strategy of winning over fast-casual diners not necessarily looking for pizza. Domino's and Papa John's have largely penned themselves in to a specific audience -- people who want familiar pizzas cheaply.

Pizza Hut is looking to break the mold and widen its potential customer base -- a move that could push it ahead of its rivals. That is a huge risk because the company could scare away its existing customers while failing to win new ones. For this to work the brand has to win customers not just from its pizza rivals, but from fast-casual restaurants including Chipotle, which have a higher perceived quality.

To do that, Pizza Hut needs to up its game. It's one thing to offer more choice, but a lousy salted caramel organic beet pizza with an artisanal cheese crust won't be successful just because it has a lot of trendy words attached to it.

To make this new offering, which rolls out Nov. 19, work, the company is going to need to actually deliver quality pizza that people want to come back for. Fancily named olives and balsamic drizzles won't be able to disguise a mediocre pie.

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Monday, November 10, 2014

Nike on a Growing Spree

Nike (NKE), based near Beaverton, Oregon, is the world's leading designer, marketer and distributor of authentic athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories for a wide variety of sports and fitness activities. It is one of the leading athletic apparel and footwear enterprises, and has its presence in approximately 190 countries around the world.

Fourth Quarter Results

Revenues for NIKE, Inc. rose 11 percent to $7.4 billion, up 13 percent on a currency neutral basis. Revenues for the Nike Brand were $7.0 billion, up 13 percent on a currency neutral basis powered by growth in every key category and geography except Japan, where revenues were in line with the fourth quarter last year. Revenues for Converse were $410 million, up 15 percent on a currency neutral basis, mainly driven by strong performance in our largest direct distribution markets: the United States, China and the United Kingdom.

Gross margin expanded 170 basis points to 45.6 percent. The increase was primarily attributable to higher average selling prices and continued growth in the higher margin Direct to Consumer (DTC) business, partially offset by higher product input costs and unfavorable foreign exchange rates.

Net income increased 1 percent to $698 million while diluted earnings per share increased 3 percent to $0.78, reflecting a decrease in the weighted average diluted common shares outstanding.

Share Repurchases

During the recent quarter, NKE repurchased shares $912 million ( a total of 12.3 million shares). As of the end of fiscal 2014, a total of 51.9 million shares had been repurchased under this program for approximately $3.4 billion, at an average cost of $65.83 per share.

Growth Prospects

Nike is currently concentrating on an expansion in Europe after making its presence felt in the United States. The momentum gained by the company surrounding the World Cup will help the company to grow forward throughout 2015. The incline towards stylish and comfortable clothing, rise in disposable levels of income and a sudden increase in fitness-conscious people will boost the company's growing popularity. The next few years may see the company shifting its focus towards other stylish accessories like sunglasses, etc. Innovation has always played a key role in Nike's success.

"The NIKE Brand is expected to deliver nearly $10 billion in incremental revenue by Fiscal 2017 and our apparel, women's, and e-commerce businesses will support this growth," said Trevor Edwards, president of the NIKE Brand. "Over the last three years, the NIKE Brand has grown close to 40 percent and we will continue to innovate and grow by focusing on products and services that capture the imagination of our consumer and help athletes perform at their highest potential."

The company expects its emerging markets geography to grow at a mid-teens average annual growth rate and for Greater China to return to growth, reaching an average low double-digit rate of annual growth for fiscal year 2014 through fiscal 2017.

Converse is projected to grow at a mid-teens average annual growth rate, to $3 billion in revenues by the end of fiscal 2017.

Final Thoughts

Today, Nike continues to seek new and innovative ways to develop superior athletic products and creative methods to communicate directly with their consumers. NKE is a hit among the brand-conscious consumers, and customers don't mind paying extra for this brand. It definitely lives up to its slogan "Just Do It." Nike's tremendous financial performance will help the company stay a step ahead of its competitors.

It has already witnessed tremendous success in the North American region. The Asian countries hold tremendous opportunities for this company. With robust innovation, continuing research and development activities Nike is bound to create shareholder returns.

(The above data is based on extracts taken from company's website)

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Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Mid-Day Market Update: Nu Skin Dips On Weak Forecast; EOG Resources Shares Jump

Related BZSUM Mid-Morning Market Update: Markets Open Higher; Time Warner Earnings Top Estimates #PreMarket Primer: Wednesday, November 5: Democrats Lose Control Of The US Senate

Midway through trading Wednesday, the Dow traded up 0.46 percent to 17,463.41 while the NASDAQ surged 0.16 percent to 4,631.15. The S&P also rose, gaining 0.45 percent to 2,021.13.

Leading and Lagging Sectors

In trading on Wednesday, utilities shares were relative leaders, up on the day by about 0.94 percent. Top gainers in the sector included NRG Energy (NYSE: NRG), up 3.2 percent, and NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE), up 2.6 percent.

Technology shares rose by just 0.05 percent on Wednesday. Top losers in the sector included Pegasystems (NASDAQ: PEGA), down 13.4 percent, and HomeAway (NASDAQ: AWAY), off 11 percent.

Top Headline

Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) reported upbeat earnings for the third quarter.

The New York-based company posted a quarterly net profit of $967 million, or $1.11 per share, versus a year-ago profit of $1.18 billion, or $1.26 per share. Adjusted EPS rose to $1.22 from $0.91. However, adjusted earnings, excluding tax benefit, came in at $0.97 per share.

Its revenue climbed 3% to $6.24 billion. However, analysts were expecting earnings of $0.94 per share on revenue of $6.16 billion.

Equities Trading UP

Coupons.com (NYSE: COUP) shares shot up 28.09 percent to $15.94 after the company reported upbeat quarterly results.

Shares of Callidus Software (NASDAQ: CALD) got a boost, shooting up 14.16 percent to $15.56 after the company reported better-than-expected Q3 results and issued a strong revenue forecast.

EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) shares were also up, gaining 6.67 percent to $96.30 after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and raised its production growth forecast.

Equities Trading DOWN

Shares of Albany Molecular Research (NASDAQ: AMRI) were down 22.34 percent to $17.61 after the company reported a Q3 loss of $0.02 per share on revenue of $62.47 million.

FireEye (NASDAQ: FEYE) shares tumbled 15.15 percent to $29.06 after the company reported downbeat third-quarter revenue.

Nu Skin Enterprises (NYSE: NUS) was down, falling 16.43 percent to $42.13 after the company issued a weak forecast for the current quarter.

Commodities

In commodity news, oil traded up 1.10 percent to $78.04, while gold traded down 1.70 percent to $1,147.90.

Silver traded down 2.68 percent Wednesday to $15.53, while copper fell 0.38 percent to $3.01.

Eurozone

European shares were higher today. The eurozone’s STOXX 600 climbed 1.65 percent, the Spanish Ibex Index climbed 1.14 percent, while Italy’s FTSE MIB Index jumped 2.60 percent. Meanwhile, the German DAX rose 1.63 percent and the French CAC 40 jumped 1.89 percent while UK shares climbed 1.32 percent.

Economics

The MBA reported that its index of mortgage application activity declined 2.60% in the week ended October 31, 2014.

Private-sector employers added 230,000 jobs in October, versus 225,000 in September. However, economists were expecting an addition of 220,000 jobs.

The final reading of Markit services PMI fell to 57.10 in October, versus a prior reading of 57.30. However, economists were expecting a reading of 57.10.

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell to 57.10 in October, versus a prior reading of 58.60. However, economists were expecting a reading of 58.00.

Posted-In: Earnings News Guidance Eurozone Futures Commodities Econ #s Markets

© 2014 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Activision Blizzard Earnings: Record-Breaking Results Setting Up a Record-Breaking Year


Destiny has been a smash hit so far. Source: Destiny website.

Activision Blizzard  (NASDAQ: ATVI  ) just turned in a smash hit of a third quarter. 

Revenue came in well above the company's -- and Wall Street analysts' -- projections. Earnings on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis more than doubled expectations:


Source: Activision Blizzard Q3 release,

Let's take a closer look at the specifics. It was a busy quarter, but it's setting up what should be a much busier fourth quarter, and potentially many more to come. 

Something old, something new fueling growth
The much-anticipated Destiny -- which seemed to be a potential disappointment based on early reviews -- has turned into the best-selling new franchise ever launched in the United States. We knew it did $325 million sales to end users in the first five days, but 9.5 million users point toward more than $500 million in end-user sales so far. With both Microsoft and Sony discounting their newest consoles as they fight for market share heading into the holiday season, the first expansion pack coming out in a few weeks, and the core users that are coming in at 3 million per day, playing more than three hours per day on average, it's likely that Destiny sales will be strong in Q4 as well. 

Likewise, Activision's newest title, Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft -- the company's most successful free-to-play game for the PC and iPad -- reached 20 million registered users in the quarter. The game will launch for Android in December. While the company doesn't give a breakout of revenues for each title, Hearthstone -- which is free to play and brings in revenue only through in-game purchases -- contributed enough to get a mention in the 10-Q as a driver of Activision's sales growth.


Warlords of Draenor is driving users back to WoW. Source: Blizzard

Old Activision racehorses Diablo and World of Warcraft were big contributors in the quarter as well. Diablo 3: Ultimate Edition made its debut on consoles in August and was the quarter's No. 4-selling console game, while Diablo 3: Reaper of Souls for the PC, released in March, is the No. 2-selling PC game in 2014. 

The biggest surprise to me -- it was announced before earnings, and somehow I missed it -- was that WoW saw its subscriber base grow to 7.4 million at the end of the quarter, largely driven up by a number of in-game freebies, updates, and promotions before the upcoming release of World of Warcraft: Warlords of Draenor in mid-November. While the game has seen a consistent decline in players since the end of 2010 -- which is a big deal, because WoW users pay a monthly fee to play -- a rebound in users more than six weeks in advance of the release of the update indicates there should be strong interest in it. 


Skylanders toys are a big part of the game's popularity. Source: Activision.

Skylanders continues to perform well, with SWAP Force sales in both Europe and the U.S. remaining strong, even with a new Skylanders game rolling out for the holidays. How strong is this franchise? Skylanders toys have outsold the No. 1 best-selling action-figure line in Europe and the U.S. so far in 2014. That's pretty powerful, considering that Disney's Infinity 2.0 franchise, which also features handheld toys that are part of the game, includes many of Disney's most popular characters. 

Looking ahead to Q4: A new "magnificent seven" driving growth
With the earnings release, management also raised its revenue guidance by $85 million for the full year.


Source: Activision Blizzard Q3 release,

Considering that Activision will launch Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare, World of Warcraft: Warlords of Draenor, and Skylanders Trap Team, during the quarter, as well as the Android version of Hearthstone and the first expansion pack for Destiny, called The Dark Below, it shouldn't be a surprise that the company has been expecting to have a record second half of the year in 2014. 

With the new generation of consoles now one year old, the successful debut of Destiny, and Hearthstone for mobile bringing the core of major franchise titles to seven, Activision Blizzard is in great shape going into the fourth quarter and beyond. 

 

Apple Watch revealed: The real winner is inside
Apple recently revealed the product of its secret-development "dream team" -- the Apple Watch. The secret is out, and some early viewers are claiming that its everyday impact could trump the iPod, iPhone, and the iPad. In fact, ABI Research predicts that 485 million of this type of device will be sold per year. But one small company makes Apple's gadget possible. And its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early in-the-know investors. To be one of them, and see where the real money is to be made, just click here!