Thursday, June 18, 2015

Your Clients’ Biggest Financial Regrets

Regret is one of the most powerful emotions, and it affects everyone everywhere, particularly when it comes to financial planning. According to a recent survey undertaken by The deVere Group, a U.K.-based financial advisory firm that works with wealthy individuals across the globe, high-net-worth individuals are no exception when it comes to regret. What they regret most is not having put in place a regularly reviewed personal financial plan earlier in their lives. Their second biggest financial regret lies in inconsistently scrutinizing their personal investments and taking on too much unnecessary debt.

This has become a concern to many wealthy individuals after the 2008 financial crisis, says Nigel Greene, founder and chief executive of the deVere Group. “It’s clear that wealthy individuals value highly the benefits and opportunities that long-term financial planning brings them and their families, and that they understand the importance of routinely reviewing those plans to ensure that they always remain ‘on track’ to reach their financial goals,” Greene says.

Even though high-net-worth individuals have greater access to a financial advisor and a greater financial cushion than others for any bad decisions, the regret they feel with respect to not having planned thoroughly can impede their ability to future financial planning as much as those who aren’t so wealthy, he says.

“It’s up to financial planners, then, to work through that regret and to get people to understand that no matter how big a regret they might have with something they have done or not done in the past, a bigger regret is coming if they don’t do something now,” he says.

The impact of financial regret is even greater for those whose means are not so extensive, says Richard Peterson, managing director at MarketPsych.

Whenever people regret a financial decision, they tend to evaluate themselves compared to others and more importantly, compared to where they think they should be and where they’re at.

“This can result in a kind of paralysis that stops people from taking any more financial decisions,” Peterson says. “After the financial crisis, everyone felt a sense of regret and it came together to make this huge pool of common regret.”

Although many people have moved beyond the financial crisis – in fact, Peterson says, some are now ruing the fact that they weren’t as financially adventurous as they could have been when the market was rallying – advisors will always have to address their clients’ regrets, because regret happens in both negative and positive market environments.

“The first step an advisor needs to take is to acknowledge the regret and then work to push it out, because regret is always diffused by the passage of time,” Peterson says. “An advisor needs to move their clients to the state of reappraisal, and get them to think of future decisions they will take.”

And the best way to do that is to give clients a sense of what they can and can’t control going forward.

“People can control what loans they take out, for example, how much they borrow and so on, but they can’t control larger things like the direction of interest rates, and advisors need to make their clients aware that despite those larger happenings, they still need to take decisions for their financial future,” Peterson says.

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Assurant Shares Hit 52-Week High - Analyst Blog

On Jul 8, 2013, the shares of Assurant Inc. (AIZ) hit a 52-week high of $51.97. The momentum was driven by strong execution in its various segments as well as a favorable operating performance from the past several quarters. Assurant delivered earnings surprise in 3 of last 4 quarter with an average beat of 36.8%. Assurant has a diverse product base and distribution platform with established presence in various niche markets, enabling it to generate sustained solid operating earnings. The company maintained an adequate risk-adjusted capitalization, low debt-to-capital ratio and adequate interest coverage ratio. Going forward, we expect Assurant's Specialty line of business to benefit from growth in multi-housing loans and higher volume in lender-placed loan portfolios in the later half of 2013. Also, the Solutions line business will see higher top-line growth from increases in domestic as well as international businesses. Moreover, the company has geared itself with product mix changes in the health line of business to position itself for the changed market as a result of Healthcare reform. We expect these initiatives will bring long-term earnings growth from this segment. Assurant also boosts a strong balance sheet with efficient capital management. It supports the company to increase dividend payout and well as ensure steady buybacks which in turn drives bottom-line earnings growth. Valuation looks attractive for Assurant. The shares are currently trading at a discount to the peer group average on a forward price-to-earnings basis and a slight discount on a price-to-book basis. The return on equity of is much higher than the peer group average. Also, the year-to-date return from the stock is 49.2%, above S&P's return of 15.0%. Assurant carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Multi-line insurers Cigna Corp. (CI), Enstar Group Limited. (ESGR), CNO Financial Group Inc. (CNO), among others, are worth taking a look. All these stocks carry Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Monday, June 15, 2015

US Intial Jobless Claims Show Slight Improvement; 4-Week MA At Lowest Since ...

THE TAKEAWAY:USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 3) > 333K versus 335K expected, from 328K (revised up from 326K) > USDJPY BULLISHMarkets are closely watching US labor data after a tremendous miss in Non-farm Payrolls last week (+162K July actual; +185K Bloomberg News survey expected). This meaningful miss, along with a downward revision in June figures to +188K, caused more caution towards labor market sentiment after earlier optimistic NFP data.The weekly Initial Jobless Claims data slightly beat Bloomberg News survey expectations, coming in at 333K versus the 335K consensus. However these weekly numbers are volatile so investors often like to take a four-week moving average to smooth out the ridges.US_Intial_Jobless_Claims_Show_Slight_Improvement_4-Week_MA_At_Lowest_Since_2007_body_Picture_2.png, US Intial Jobless Claims Show Slight Improvement; 4-Week MA At Lowest Since 2007Note the y-axis on the chart above is scaled in thousands and begins at 300K.The trend in data shown above is certainly optimistic. In fact, the four-week moving average of 335.5K is at its lowest level since November 2007.However the Initial Jobless Claims does not tell the whole labor market story. The labor force participation rate is at 63.4%, compared to 66.0% in November 2007. Needless to say, numerous variables need to be considered to affirm labor market development. The Fed will need to decide whether the economy is indeed strong enough before it consider tapering asset purchases at the September meeting. Ideally for the Fed, NFPs will be around +200K for several months. Thus additional labor market data will need to be closely watched in coming weeks before any further deliberation can take place.USDJPY 1-minute Chart: August 8, 2013US_Intial_Jobless_Claims_Show_Slight_Improvement_4-Week_MA_At_Lowest_Since_2007_body_Picture_1.png, US Intial Jobless Claims Show Slight Improvement; 4-Week MA At Lowest Since 2007Charts Created using Marketscope – prepared by Kevin JinThe USDJPY is slightly lower after the marginally positive US labor data. The pair is down about -25 pips at the time of writing and even attempted to reach ¥96.00 before turning slightly higher.--- Written by Kevin Jin, DailyFX ResearchAre you new to trading? Watch this.original source

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

How BAE Systems Measures up as a GARP Investment

LONDON -- A popular way to dig out reasonably priced stocks with robust growth potential is through the "Growth at a Reasonable Price", or GARP, strategy. This theory uses the price-to-earnings to growth (PEG) ratio to show how a share's price weighs up in relation to its near-term growth prospects -- a reading below 1 is generally considered decent value for money.

Today I am looking at BAE Systems  (LSE: BA  ) (NASDAQOTH: BAESY  ) to see how it measures up.

What are BAE Systems' earnings expected to do?

 

2013

2014

EPS Growth

9.0%

(1.0)%

P/E Ratio

9.7

9.8

PEG Ratio

1

n/a

Source: Digital Look

BAE Systems is widely expected to punch solid earnings growth in the coming year, although fears of falling defense expenditure in the West is predicted to result in a slight drop in 2014.

For this year, BAE Systems looks like great value with a PEG reading bang on the money at one, while a P/E ratio of below 10 -- territory which is generally considered decent value -- also underlines its position as a cheap pick. Next year's earnings dip knocks out this PEG ratio, however, although its P/E multiple is projected to remain in bargain terrain.

Does BAE Systems provide decent value against its rivals?

 

FTSE 100

Aerospace & Defense

Prospective P/E Ratio

16.7

12.9

Prospective PEG Ratio

4.7

3.5

Source: Digital Look

BAE Systems stacks up favorably against both the FTSE 100 as well as its peers in the aerospace and defense sector, considering both forward PEG and P/E ratios.

Many of BAE Systems' defense rivals are smaller, more flexible and thus better equipped to protect earnings despite falling expenditure on both sides of the Atlantic. Still, these problems are still a heavy plague across the whole sector, making BAE Systems look cheap at current prices.

Although fears over reduced spending from traditional customers in the near term continues to dent investor appeal, the company's huge order pipeline -- its backlog rose 8% last year to £42.4 billion -- illustrates BAE Systems' solid growth potential.

An important defense player with expanding horizons
BAE Systems is extending its geographical range in order to mitigate the effect of falling orders from the West, and saw orders outside of the U.S. and U.K. advance to £11.2 billion in 2012, a gargantuan 133% leap from the previous year. The company is already a major player in Saudi Arabia, and is making huge inroads into other lucrative developing markets including India.

The effect of budgetary constraints in Washington, combined with a reduction in combat operations in Afghanistan in coming years, is likely to crimp hardware demand from the U.S. However, BAE Systems -- which derives 40% of total turnover from the country -- remains a critical supplier to the country's armed forces.

Just this week the company, through its role as subcontractor to Support Systems Associates, was awarded a $1.5 billion contract for a five-year duration to provide aircraft engineering solutions and logistics to the U.S. armed forces.

Although fears of reduced Western spend continues to hamper confidence in BAE Systems, I believe that the company is a great GARP stock. Its position at the forefront of battleground technologies makes it an important supplier to the world's largest military superpower. Coupled with this, I expect rising exposure to lucrative new geographies to underpin strong earnings expansion moving forwards.

The expert's guide for intelligent investors
If you already hold shares in BAE Systems, check out this newly updated special report which highlights a host of other FTSE winners identified by ace fund manager Neil Woodford.

Woodford -- head of U.K. Equities at Invesco Perpetual -- has more than 30 years' experience in the industry, and boasts an exceptional track record when it comes to selecting stock market stars.

The report, compiled by The Motley Fool's crack team of analysts, is totally free and comes with no further obligation. Click here now to download your copy.

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Monday, June 8, 2015

Why Rent-A-Center's Earnings May Not Be So Hot

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Rent-A-Center (Nasdaq: RCII  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Rent-A-Center generated $98.2 million cash while it booked net income of $178.0 million. That means it turned 3.2% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK. However, FCF is less than net income. Ideally, we'd like to see the opposite.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Rent-A-Center look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With questionable cash flows amounting to only 7.3% of operating cash flow, Rent-A-Center's cash flows look clean. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) provided the biggest boost, at 2.4% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 49.1% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

Can your retirement portfolio provide you with enough income to last? You'll need more than Rent-A-Center. Learn about crafting a smarter retirement plan in "The Shocking Can't-Miss Truth About Your Retirement." Click here for instant access to this free report.

We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

Add Rent-A-Center to My Watchlist.

Thursday, June 4, 2015

Is This the Future of TV?

The following video is from Monday's MarketFoolery podcast, in which host Chris Hill  and analysts Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss the top business and investing stories of the day.

Shares of Sprint (NYSE: S  )  rose on Monday on news that DISH Network  (NASDAQ: DISH  )  has made a bid to buy Sprint for $25.5 billion. What would the deal mean for competitors like Verizon (NYSE: VZ  ) , AT&T (NYSE: T  ) , and Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA  ) ? What would it mean for Amazon and Netflix? In this installment, our analysts talk about the future of television.

The tumultuous performance of Netflix shares since the summer of 2011 has caused headaches for many devoted shareholders. While the company's first-mover status is often viewed as a competitive advantage, the opportunities in streaming media have brought some new, deep-pocketed rivals looking for their piece of a growing pie. Can Netflix fend off this burgeoning competition, and will its international growth aspirations really pay off? These are must-know issues for investors, which is why The Motley Fool has released a premium report on Netflix. Inside, you'll learn about the key opportunities and risks facing the company, as well as reasons to buy or sell the stock. The report includes a full year of updates to cover critical new developments, so make sure to click here and claim a copy today.

The relevant video segment can be found between 1:46 and 6:17.

For the full video of today's MarketFoolery, click here.

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

CarMax Beats on Revenue, Matches Expectations on EPS

CarMax (NYSE: KMX  ) reported earnings on April 10. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Feb. 28 (Q4), CarMax beat expectations on revenues and met expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew. GAAP earnings per share grew.

Gross margins shrank, operating margins shrank, net margins were steady.

Revenue details
CarMax reported revenue of $2.83 billion. The 12 analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ predicted a top line of $2.73 billion on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 14% higher than the prior-year quarter's $2.54 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.46. The 15 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ averaged $0.46 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.46 for Q4 were 15% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.40 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 15.3%, 60 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 6.2%, 90 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 3.7%, much about the same as the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $3.11 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.57.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $12.16 billion. The average EPS estimate is $2.09.

Investor sentiment

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on CarMax is outperform, with an average price target of $40.00.

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Add CarMax to My Watchlist.

Sunday, May 31, 2015

3 Stocks Breaking Out on Big Volume

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

>>4 Huge Stocks on Traders' Radars

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>Sell These 5 Toxic Stocks Before It's Too Late

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume recently.

Maxim Integrated Products

Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) designs, develops, manufactures, and markets various linear and mixed-signal integrated circuits worldwide. This stock closed up 4% to $33.53 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 5.42 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 2.55 million

Volume % Change: 125%

From a technical perspective, MXIM soared higher here right off its 50-day moving average of $32.34 with strong upside volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of MXIM within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if MXIM manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $33.70 to its 52-week high at $33.78 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in MXIM as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $32.34 or above more near-term support at $31.30 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 2.55 million shares. If that breakout triggers soon, then MXIM will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory above $33.78, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $40 to $45.

Bluebird Bio

Bluebird Bio (BLUE), a clinical-stage biotechnology company, focuses on developing gene therapies for severe genetic and orphan diseases. This stock closed up 6.1% to $26.73 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 485,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 228,857

Volume % Change: 119%

From a technical perspective, BLUE ripped sharply higher here with above-average volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last few weeks, with shares moving higher from its low of $17.40 to its intraday high of $27.18. During that uptrend, shares of BLUE have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of BLUE within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if BLUE manages to take out some key overhead resistance levels at $28.08 to $28.98 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in BLUE as long as it's trending above Monday's low of $24.79 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 228,857 shares. If that breakout gets underway soon, then BLUE will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $32 to $34.

Grifols

Grifols (GRFS), a specialty biopharmaceutical company, develops, manufactures, and distributes a range of plasma derivative products primarily in the European Union, Spain, the U.S., Canada, and internationally. This stock closed up 3.2% at $42.12 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 1.10 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 622,295

Volume % Change: 89%

From a technical perspective, GRFS spiked notably higher here right off its 50-day moving average of $40.71 with above-average volume. This spike higher on Monday is quickly pushing shares of GRFS within range of triggering a major breakout trade. That trade will hit if GRFS manages to take out some key overhead resistance levels at $42.28 to $42.87 and then once it clears its 52-week high at $43.45 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in GRFS as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $40.71 or above more near-term support at $39.35 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 622,295 shares. If that breakout materializes soon, then GRFS will set up to enter new 52-week-high territory above $43.45, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that move are $48 to $50.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings



>>5 Stocks Ready to Break Out



>>5 Rocket Stocks Ready for Blastoff

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Thursday, May 28, 2015

Is Medicare enough?

medicare medigap

If you're considering getting supplement insurance, or Medigap, sign up within six months of enrolling in Medicare.

NEW YORK (Money Magazine) My father just went on Medicare. Should he buy Medigap insurance? Which policy is best? -- Joe, Houston.

If your dad isn't insured by a former employer, he should buy supplement insurance, or Medigap, which pays for some costs not covered by Medicare.

Ultimate Guide to Retirement Getting started401(k)s & company plansInvestingAnnuitiesIRAsSelf-employment plansPensions and benefit plansSocial SecurityInsuranceEstate planningLiving in retirementGetting help

And, says Bonnie Burns, a policy specialist with California Health Advocates, he should sign up within six months of enrolling in Medicare, when he can't be rejected for health reasons (some states let you qualify later on for a similar six-month window if your employer plan is canceled).

Since switching policies later may involve a physical, your dad's best plan is one that suits him over time, not just one that meets his needs cheaply now.

All policies must match one of Medicare's 10 standardized plans -- from basic coinsurance to coverage of skilled nursing. Learn more at Medicare.gov. To top of page

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Ask Matt: What's the best way to invest $100?

USA TODAY markets reporter Matt Krantz answers a different reader question every weekday. To submit a question, e-mail Matt at mkrantz@usatoday.com.

Q: What's the best way to invest $100?

A: Online trading has definitely opened the door to beginning investors. You can get started with investing, whether you have $1,000, $100, or even less at some brokerages.

Beginning investors have to deal with two primary barriers: minimum deposits and fees. You need to pay close attention to both these barriers to get started. Many, but not all, mainstream online brokerage firms require investors to have at least $1,000 to start.

TRACK OUR STOCKS: Get real-time quotes with our free Portfolio Tracker

For investors with just $100 to invest, the best place to start is with commission-free investments at a firm with no minimum deposit. One option might be to open an account with TD Ameritrade, which has no minimum deposit. Additionally, TD Ameritrade offers more than a 100 exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, that you can buy and sell for no commission.

ETFs are stocks you can buy that own hundreds of stocks. ETFS are a good way to spread your bet, and keep your expenses low.

If you'd rather invest in individual stocks, and not ETFs, another option is Loyal3. This online brokerage allows you to buy from a limited menu of popular stocks, like Disney, Berkshire Hathaway and Starbucks, and pay no commission. Remember if you go this route, it is up to you to make sure you spread your money around a variety of stocks.

Monday, May 25, 2015

Budget deficit declining faster than predicted

WASHINGTON — The federal budget deficit has fallen sharply over the past few years and is on track to decline even further, according to a new report from the Congressional Budget Office.

The deficit this year is expected to be $514 billion — just 3% the size of the economy and significantly less than the $1.4 trillion deficit Congress ran up when it pumped stimulus into the economy in 2009.

The non-partisan budget office has been reporting declining deficits ever since, but Tuesday's report shows that the deficits are shrinking faster than predicted. This year's deficit is $46 billion smaller than CBO projected last year, and over 10 years those projections add up to $1 trillion in smaller deficits.

Why? The CBO says federal revenues are increasing by 9% and short-term spending cuts have held spending increases to just 2.6%.

Deficits are expected to decline this year and next, and then start rising again because of increased health insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, mounting interest costs and an aging population receiving more entitlements, the report said.

STORY: Health law could mean fewer full-time workers, CBO says

And the national debt — the cumulative effect of those annual budget deficits — is still a problem, the CBO said. The debt will be $17.6 trillion this year, growing to a projected $27.2 trillion by 2024.

"Such large and growing federal debt could have serious negative consequences, including restraining economic growth in the long term, giving policymakers less flexibility to respond to unexpected challenges, and eventually increasing the risk of a fiscal crisis," the report said.

The White House said deficits of less than 3% of the economy are ideal. "The most important thing is that you're getting your debt down as a percentage of the economy, and that it's on a downward path," said Jason Furman, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers. But he acknowledged that the CBO is projecting deficits to turn the corner! again by 2016. "They're not saying we've solved our fiscal problems."

On Capitol Hill, Republicans and Democrats alike credited bipartisan budget agreements for helping to make progress -- but they also agreed that more work needs to be done.

"Today's report is an important reminder that the debt won't take care of itself — we must take action," said Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., chairman of the House Budget Committee.

Senate Budget Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray, D-Wash., said the report "offers encouraging evidence that our near-term fiscal outlook continues to improve, although there is much more we need to do to tackle our long-term budget challenges."

Follow @gregorykorte on Twitter

Sunday, May 24, 2015

Deadline Passed, What's Next for You and Obamacare

Americans Sign Up For Health Insurance On ACA Deadline DayJoe Raedle/Getty ImagesElva Garcia gets help signing up for health insurance through the Affordable Care Act at a Miami Enrollment Assistance Center on Monday. CHICAGO -- The deadline has passed, and so too the surprise grace period, for signing up for health insurance as part of the nation's health care law. Now what? For those who were able to navigate the glitch-prone and often overwhelmed HealthCare.gov website, there's still work to be done to make sure success online leads to actual coverage come the new year. The first step experts recommend is to call your insurance company and double-check they received your payment. What if you missed the Christmas Eve deadline and still want insurance in 2014, as the health law requires of most Americans? You may be without health insurance for a month, but you can still sign up for coverage that will start in February. "Be patient, because they're trying to help you," said Tina Stewart, a 25-year-old graduate student in Salt Lake City who succeeded in enrolling in a health plan Tuesday morning. "It will take time." The historic changes made by the Affordable Care Act take full effect on Jan. 1. People with chronic health conditions can no longer be denied health insurance. Those who get sick and start piling up medical bills will no longer lose their coverage. Out-of-pocket limits arrive that are designed to protect patients from going bankrupt. But unless the 1 million Americans who have so far enrolled for coverage via the new marketplaces make sure their applications have arrived at their new insurance companies without errors, some may find they're still uninsured when they try to refill a prescription or make a doctor's appointment. "The enrollment files have been getting better and more accurate, but there is still work that needs to be done," said Robert Zirkelbach, a spokesman for America's Health Insurance Plans, a trade group that represents the private insurance industry. "The health plans are still having to go back and fix some of data errors coming through in these files." If everything went smoothly, consumers can expect to see a welcome packet arrive in the mail from their insurance company, Zirkelbach said. If not, a phone call to the insurer might clear things up. "If a consumer signed up yesterday, they shouldn't expect the health plan to have their enrollment application today," Zirkelbach said. "Allow a couple of days to receive and process those enrollments." Paying the first premium is crucial. Because of the changing deadlines for enrollment, most insurers have agreed to allow payments through Jan. 10 and will make coverage retroactive to Jan. 1, he said. Anyone who missed the Christmas Eve deadline to enroll for insurance to start in January can still apply at HealthCare.gov for coverage to begin later. The federal website serves 36 states, but also directs people elsewhere to the online insurance site serving their state. The site also offers directions to local agencies offering in-person help. After the disastrous rollout in October, the federal website received 2 million visits on Monday, and heavy -- but not as heavy -- traffic on Tuesday. White House spokeswoman Tara McGuinness said she had no immediate estimate of visitors Tuesday or how many succeeded in obtaining insurance before the midnight Christmas Eve deadline. The unexpected one-day grace period was just the latest in a string of delays and reversals. Unless you qualify for Medicaid, you'll pay a monthly "premium" fee to an insurance company for coverage. Before the company covers actual medical costs, you may have to pay a certain amount called a deductible, in addition to a possible set fee for a doctor visit (copay) or a percentage of the cost of a medical service (coinsurance). Federal tax credits are aimed at helping make premiums more affordable for households earning between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty line. That's $11,490 to $45,960 for an individual, $23,550 to $94,200 for a family of four. Finally, note the next significant deadline isn't for a few more months. If you don't have coverage by March 31, you'll pay a tax penalty next year of $95 or 1 percent of your income, whichever is higher. Ron Pollack, president of Families USA, a liberal advocacy group that has led efforts to get uninsured people signed up for coverage next year, said that's the deadline that matters most. "The real significant deadline is March 31," Pollack said. "The enrollment period extends for another three months."

Here are some tips for those who met Tuesday's deadline to enroll via HealthCare.gov for health insurance that starts Jan. 1 and those who didn't.

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Slow shopping season to spur sleigh full of deals

Shopping in stores just crawled along this holiday season, leaving a pile of unsold inventory. That means bigger-than-usual after-Christmas sales.

You don't even have to wait until the 26th.

"Promotions have already crept into the irrational zone — north of 50% off," says Brian Sozzi, CEO of Belus Capital Advisors. "The season so far was a full-on Debbie Downer. After Christmas a black plague of promotions will sweep throughout the malls and stores — 50, 60, 70% off."

Amazon.com's "2013 After-Christmas Sale" is already rolling with such offers as 70% off on select clothing, shoes, watches and jewelry. Old Navy launched its "After Holiday Sale" on Sunday with markdowns up to 75%.

Sales growth this year is likely to be the weakest since 2009: 3.2%, says Chris Christopher, director of consumer economics at IHS Global Insight.

"Overall, the holiday retail sales season is not the best," he says. "Online is up tremendously from where it was five years ago, but everyone is hurting on the margins because of the discounting and the free shipping."

Holiday online retail sales are projected to grow 13.5% over last year, Christopher says.

For the last full week of shopping Dec. 16-22, in-store retail sales were down 3.1% from the same week last year, according to ShopperTrak, which analyzes retail shopping trends.

"Traffic is down dramatically, and that's driven by the ability to virtually window shop," says ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin. In fact, the number of people visiting brick-and-mortar stores was down 21.2% from the same period in 2012.

"Being a 26-day season rather than a 32-day season has just been a huge difference," says Brad Wilson, editor in chief of BradsDeals.com. Retailers "are going to have to pick up a lot on the back end."

Wilson says the big sales have pros and cons. Pros: huge discounts — sometimes more than 70%. Cons: Merchandise will be random — whatever is left.

"We have become so sensitized to discounts, so retailer! s now have to be very aggressive to get our attention," Wilson says.

One area where sales are looking up: mobile shopping. About 18% of online holiday purchases were made on mobile phones, up from 12% last year, says Corey Pierson, CEO of Custora, which tracks data from more than 100 online retailers.

Online and mobile sales are putting brick-and-mortar stores in a pinch. "They are not only competing with each other, they are competing with with cyber-stores too," Christopher says.

For retailers, the next job is getting customers back into their stores after the Christmas rush — a difficult task, says Steven Keith Platt, director of the Platt Retail Institute.

"People just aren't spending," Platt says, "and retailers are having to deal with that. They have to aggressively push these huge discounts and just hope they can extend out the holiday."

Target, which suffered a data breach on 40 million credit card accounts, had even more bad news after trying to make up for that damage with a storewide 10% discount this weekend.

The number of transactions at Target slipped 3% to 4% on Saturday compared with the Saturday before Christmas last year, says Craig Johnson, president of retail consultancy Customer Growth Partners.

"Virtually everybody that they compete against — Walmart, Kohls, Costco — was up, and they were down," Johnson says.

Ask Matt: Are stock buybacks easy money or hype?

USA TODAY markets reporter Matt Krantz answers a different reader question every weekday. To submit a question, e-mail Matt at mkrantz@usatoday.com.

Q: Are stock buybacks really easy money for investors?

A: Investors know the buyback drill. A company announces a plan to either buyback shares or boost an existing buyback plan, and the stock often goes higher.

Investors love buybacks because, in theory, the company is using its cash to reduce the number of shares outstanding. The fewer shares outstanding, the fewer slices earnings must be cut into. That means each investor should get a bigger part of the bottom line.

TRACK YOUR STOCKS: Get real-time quotes with our free Portfolio Tracker

That's the theory. But the reality is much different. Companies spent 39.5% more in the third quarter buying back their stock than they did in the same period of 2012. Interestingly, because of the stock market rally, companies paid nearly 20% more during the quarter to buy the shares than they would have a year ago.

Is this spending paying off for investors? Not really. Companies have been issuing new shares, in large part as payment to officers and employees, negating at least part of the benefit of the buybacks, says Howard Silverblatt of S&P Dow Jones Indices.

The number of shares outstanding actually rose about 1% in the third quarter, he says. Investors must be careful to not assume that just because a company is buying back its shares, that it will benefit them.

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

4 Financial Stocks Rising on Big Volume

DELAFIELD, Wis. (Stockpickr) -- Professional traders running mutual funds and hedge funds don't just look at a stock's price moves; they also track big changes in volume activity. Often when above-average volume moves into an equity, it precedes a large spike in volatility.

>>5 Big Stocks to Trade for Big Gains

Major moves in volume can signal unusual activity, such as insider buying or selling -- or buying or selling by "superinvestors."

Unusual volume can also be a major signal that hedge funds and momentum traders are piling into a stock ahead of a catalyst. These types of traders like to get in well before a large spike, so it's always a smart move to monitor unusual volume. That said, remember to combine trend and price action with unusual volume. Put them all together to help you decipher the next big trend for any stock.

>>5 Stocks Poised to Pop on Bullish Earnings

With that in mind, let's take a look at several stocks rising on unusual volume today.

Artisan Partners Asset Management

Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM) is an independent investment management firm that provides a range equity investment strategies spanning different market capitalization segments and investing styles in both U.S. and non-U.S. markets. This stock closed up 3.3% to $54.75 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 400,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 58,920

Volume % Change: 352%

>>5 Stocks Poised for Breakouts

From a technical perspective, APAM spiked higher here right above its 50-day moving average of $51.32 with strong upside volume. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last two months, with shares soaring higher from its low of $46.02 to its recent high of $55.99. During that uptrend, shares of APAM have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action. That move has now pushed shares of APAM within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade. That trade will hit if APAM manages to take out Monday's high of $55.80 and then its all-time high at $56.07 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in APAM as long as it's trending above Monday's low of $52.88 or its 50-day at $51.32 and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that hits near or above 58,920 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then APAM will set up to enter new all-tim- high territory above, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $60 to $65.

Xoom

Xoom (XOOM) provides online consumer-to-consumer international money transfers in close to 30 countries. This stock closed up 4.5% at $35.08 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 1.13 million

Three-Month Average Volume: 490,149

Volume % Change: 111%

>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy Now

From a technical perspective, XOOM ripped higher here right above some near-term support at $33.04 with strong upside volume. This move is quickly pushing shares of XOOM within range of triggering a big breakout trade. That trade will hit if XOOM manages to take out some near-term overhead resistance levels at $35.88 to its all-time high at $36.46 with high volume.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in XOOM as long as it's trending above Monday's low $33.88 or above more near-term support at $33.04, and then once it sustains a move or close above those breakout levels with volume that this near or above 490,149 shares. If that breakout hits soon, then XOOM will set up to enter new all-time-high territory, which is bullish technical price action. Some possible upside targets off that breakout are $40 to $45.

Proassurance

Proassurance (PRA) provides professional liability insurance products to health care service, legal service and other professional service providers in the U.S. This stock closed up 2.2% at $47.40 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 855,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 332,423

Volume % Change: 185%

>>5 Stocks Under $10 Set to Soar

From a technical perspective, PRA gapped higher here back above its 50-day moving average of $46.29 with above-average volume. Shares of PRA also flirted with its 200-day moving average at $47.92, before closing just below that level at $47.40. This stock has been uptrending strong for the last few weeks with strong upside volume flows, since the stock has pushed higher from its low of $42.29 to its intraday high at $48.28. During that uptrend, shares of PRA have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in PRA as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $46.29 or above $45 and then once it sustains a move or close above Monday's high of $48.28 with volume that's near or above 332,423 shares. If we get that move soon, then PRA will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $50 to $52.

Aviv Reit

Aviv Reit (AVIV) operates as a self-administered, self-managed real estate investment trust specializing in the ownership and triple-net leasing of post-acute and long-term care skilled nursing facilities. This stock closed up 2.8% at $24.70 in Monday's trading session.

Monday's Volume: 463,000

Three-Month Average Volume: 147,886

Volume % Change: 250%

>>5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying

From a technical perspective, AVIV trended up here right above its 50-day moving average of $23.06 with heavy upside volume. This move pushed shares of AVIV into breakout territory, since the stock took out some near-term overhead resistance at $24.69. Prior to this breakout, shares of AVIV have been uptrending strong, with the stock moving higher from its low of $21.31 to its intraday high of $24.77. During that move, shares of AVIV have been consistently making higher lows and higher highs, which is bullish technical price action.

Traders should now look for long-biased trades in AVIV as long as it's trending above its 50-day at $23.06 and then once it sustains a move or close above Monday's high of $24.77 with volume that's near or above 147,886 shares. If we get that move soon, then AVIV will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at $26 to $26.65. Any high-volume move above those levels will then give AVIV a chance to tag $28 to $29.

To see more stocks rising on unusual volume, check out the Stocks Rising pn Unusual Volume portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Roberto Pedone in Delafield, Wis.


RELATED LINKS:



>>5 Stocks Under $10 to Trade for Breakouts



>>The Pros Hate These 5 Stocks -- Should You?



>>Why I'm Sticking By Dow 55,000

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in stocks mentioned.

Roberto Pedone, based out of Delafield, Wis., is an independent trader who focuses on technical analysis for small- and large-cap stocks, options, futures, commodities and currencies. Roberto studied international business at the Milwaukee School of Engineering, and he spent a year overseas studying business in Lubeck, Germany. His work has appeared on financial outlets including

CNBC.com and Forbes.com. You can follow Pedone on Twitter at www.twitter.com/zerosum24 or @zerosum24.


Monday, May 18, 2015

Will Recent Deal Discussions Boost Netflix?

With shares of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) trading around $324, is NFLX an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Netflix is an Internet subscription service that streams television shows and movies. The company's subscribers can watch unlimited television shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their televisions, computers, and mobile devices. In the United States, subscribers can also receive DVDs delivered to their homes. Netflix has revolutionized the television and movie industry with its services.

Netflix is reportedly in negotiations with pay-TV providers Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC), among others, to provide its service as a part of pay-TV packages and allow pay-TV providers to include Netflix as an app on their set-top boxes. According to people familiar with the matter who spoke to the Wall Street Journal, talks are in early stages and could still break down. Netflix cut a similar deal with the U.K.'s Virgin Media recently, but pay-TV and Netflix are still enemies in many ways, although they are apparently willing to explore partnerships.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

Netflix stock has been exploding higher over the last several years. The stock is currently trading slightly below all-time high prices and looks set to continue. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Netflix is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

NFLX

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Netflix options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Netflix Options

70.48%

90%

88%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very significant amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

October Options

Flat

Average

November Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very significant amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Netflix’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Netflix look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

345.45%

162.50%

-78.96%

-88.79%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

20.23%

17.72%

7.96%

10.13%

Earnings Reaction

-4.46%

24.28%

42.22%

-11.87%

Netflix has seen improving earnings and rising revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have had mixed feelings about Netflix’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Excellent Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Netflix stock done relative to its peers, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), Outerwall (NASDAQ:OUTR), and sector?

Netflix

Amazon

Comcast

Outerwall

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

244.30%

23.85%

24.09%

23.26%

38.57%

Netflix has been a relative performance leader, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Netflix is a streaming services that provides video entertainment to consumers in the United States. The company is reportedly in talks with top pay-TV providers in order to bring its product to the pay-TV networks. The stock has been exploding higher and is now trading slightly below all time high prices. Over the last four quarters, earnings have been improving while revenues have been rising which has produced mixed feelings among investors about recent earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, Netflix has been a year-to-date performance leader. Look for Netflix to continue OUTPERFORM.

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Royal Mail’s $5.3 Billion IPO Said to Be Fully Subscribed

Royal Mail Group Ltd. has buyers for all shares to be sold in an initial public offering valuing the 360-year-old U.K. postal service at as much as 3.3 billion pounds ($5.3 billion), two people briefed on the matter said.

The sale began today and was fully subscribed within hours, mainly on demand from institutions, according to the people, who asked not to be named because an update on the fundraising was sent only to investors. Royal Mail shares, open to applications until Oct. 8 before trading commences on Oct. 11, will be priced at 260 pence to 330 pence apiece, according to a statement.

The Royal Mail selloff will be the biggest privatization in the U.K. since former Prime Minister John Major broke up British Rail in the 1990s. The volume of IPOs in Europe has tripled in the year-to-date versus 2012, data compiled by Bloomberg show, as investors are drawn by strengthening economies in the region.

"We are encouraged by the interest shown by potential investors so far," Business Secretary Vince Cable said in the government statement. "This will give Royal Mail access to the private capital it needs to modernize."

Royal Mail, which is based in London, will have a market capitalization of between 2.6 billion pounds and 3.3 billion pounds once listed, with 401 million to 522 million shares due to be sold, equating to as much as 52.2 percent of its capital.

Government Stake

The future of the remaining state shareholding will be determined later, Minister for Business and Enterprise Michael Fallon told Bloomberg Television today. Postal services "aren't businesses that sit naturally in the public sector," he said, adding: "Its future lies in the private sector."

The U.K. government wouldn't be able to block a foreign takeover of Royal Mail once the shares are traded, Fallon said, while adding that the company will have access to capital needed to expand internationally as other nations open postal markets.

Royal Mail has a 53 percent share of U.K. parcel deliveries and reported revenue of about 9.1 billion pounds in fiscal 2013. Its operating profit, after some costs, was 440 million pounds.

One of the country's largest employers with more than 150,000 staff, Royal Mail has shifted away from letters to more lucrative package shipping, competing with TNT Express NV (TNTE) of the Netherlands and Deutsche Post AG (DPW)'s DHL Express.

The government, which decided in 2011 to privatize Royal Mail, will retain between 37.8 and 49.9 percent of stock, assuming no over-allotment options. A further 15 percent of shares may be made available beyond the base offer, it said.

Strike Poll

The government expects about 70 percent of the base offer to go to institutional investors and the rest to retail buyers and Royal Mail workers. The minimum application for the retail offer is 750 pounds of stock, or 500 pounds for employees.

Staff, some of whom plan to strike over the sale, will also be handed a total of 10 percent of the shares for free out of the government holding, valued at as much as 331 million pounds.

The Communications Workers Union said in a statement that the IPO is driven by "political dogma" and that Royal Mail can be profitable and successful under public ownership. A strike ballot closes Oct. 16, with walkouts possible from Oct. 23.

Britain's opposition Labour Party said today Royal Mail is being sold so ministers "can raise a quick buck" amid concern about the possible impact on local communities, adding that privatizing such a profitable business "makes no sense."

Bookrunners for the sale are Goldman Sachs Group Inc., UBS AG (UBSN), Barclays Plc (BARC) and Merrill Lynch & Co., with Investec Ltd., Nomura Bank International Plc and RBC Europe Ltd. lead managers, said the government, which is being advised by Lazard Ltd. (LAZ)

Royal Mail will have an implied dividend yield of 6.1 to 7.7 percent of its initial market value for the year ending March 31, with a notional full-year dividend of 200 million pounds, the statement said. For the period in which the shares will actually be traded the payment will be 133 million pounds.

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

The Deal: Lehman Makes Its Mark on Bankruptcy's Landscape

NEW YORK (The Deal) -- In the minds of many, Lehman Brothers' collapse and subsequent bankruptcy has served as a turning point in the country's financial landscape.

And while five years have gone by since the epic Chapter 11 filing on Sept. 15, 2008, its influence remains strong. For example, the movement behind the possible creation of a Chapter 14 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code that would just be for financial institutions is a direct response to Lehman.

Meanwhile, the Lehman petition was clearly the impetus behind at least one piece of legislation, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, designed to improve accounting transparency among financial institutions and prevent future taxpayer bailouts of them.

Less clear is how "the skinniest Chapter 11 petition in history," as debtor counsel Harvey Miller of Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP called it recently, inspired the speed at which bankruptcy sales were done in the cases of General Motors (GM) and Chrysler, which filed within two months of each other in the spring of 2009 and were sold in as lightning-quick a fashion as Lehman's North American investment bank and brokerage assets. Without question, general market turmoil, an economic freefall and widespread mistrust of the big banks and the regulators tasked with overseeing them followed the brokerage's implosion. "[It was] the biggest unplanned bankruptcy in the history of bankruptcy law, period," said the person presiding over the Lehman case, Judge James Peck of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York in Manhattan, during a Sept. 12 teleconference commemorating the five-year anniversary of the filing. "Anyone who was in my overcrowded courtroom [the first day] will remember the experience as absolutely one-of-a-kind, extraordinarily dramatic." The judge, who said he felt an "enormous responsibility" when randomly assigned the case, said the first few days of the case "will go down as the most momentous week in bankruptcy history, full stop." Right off the bat, Peck approved a $1.29 billion sale of Lehman's North American investment bank and brokerage assets to Barclays Capital (BCS) on Sept. 20, 2008, less than a week after the company's filing -- a move Weil's Miller calls "courageous" given the alacrity in which it was done. Chris Kiplok of Hughes Hubbard & Reed LLP, who represented Securities Investor Protection Act trustee James W. Giddens, stated that the Barclays transaction was one of several early case developments that marked "the end, in my mind, of the triage phase. ... We paused and saw that we had the right professionals on the case in the case ... [we knew] we could drive the case instead of having the case drive us."

Daniel Y. Gielchinsky of Higer Lichter & Givner LLP said that critics of the swift nature of the sale are ignoring other instances of fast Section 363 transactions.

"That does occur fairly routinely," he said. "It was imperfect [in] that not all the issues came to light before -- but the [Lehman] judge did what he had to do under the time constraints in realizing the enormity in failing to act in an expeditious matter."

One lawyer whose firm represented one of the parties that had its services contract acquired by Barclays, Christopher A. Ward at Polsinelli Shughart PC, said that because the deal was approved quickly, it made it "hard to dot all your i's and cross all your t's."

Ward says the debtor, the purchaser and the client were unclear at first on whether the contract would even be involved in the Barclays deal -- a position that many found themselves in for some time after the deal closed. Ultimately, the client Ward's firm represented was absorbed under the Barclays deal, but not before months of litigation and back-and-forth over the details of the deal. "It's what needed to be done, but the rules were definitely bent to get there," he said of Peck's approval. "Getting something done in less than five days was definitely unheard of. It was just unheard of and absolutely unprecedented. No one really knew how to handle it." But he doesn't foresee the Lehman formula for a rapid sale of a major division of a bankrupt business will serve as a playbook for others. "I don't think it has [established a blueprint], because it went so far outside the box to get things done at the outset," Ward said. To be sure, Lehman's bankruptcy may not have set a framework for creative interpretations of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, but it may trigger changes to the law itself. Peck is co-chair of one of the advisory committees that is exploring adding a Chapter 14 which would include "code reforms that would better match the Bankruptcy Code to the needs of financial institutions," the presiding judge said at the teleconference. "One of the things that we are clearly taking a hard look at are the safe harbors themselves ... and whether they are too broad," Peck said, declining to elaborate because of the ongoing nature of the matter.

Higer Lichter's Gielchinsky said at its core, Chapter 14 would address matters that could affect relationships that are specific to the financial services industry.

"When a large financial institution files for bankruptcy, the automatic market reaction is to make a run for it," Gielchinsky said.

When Lehman filed for bankruptcy, many of its customers tried to close out contracts with the brokerage firm, which had a significant impact on the company's value as a going concern. (As a reference point, in the five days between when the Barclays deal was proposed and its approval, the deal value dipped to $1.29 billion from $1.75 billion because of the market's instability.)

Chapter 14, Gielchinsky explained, would establish a subsidiary to continue to do business with consumers when a major financial institution filed for bankruptcy, "and the market would understand that they are doing business with a new nonbankrupt subsidiary that is adequately funded." While Chapter 14 is still on the drawing board, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act is a post-Lehman reality because of the financial instability the firm's bankruptcy helped usher in. "Lehman was clearly the catalyst of the financial meltdown and the recession and people think of it as the start of the domino effect that occurred after that," said Mike Gottfried at Landau Gottfried & Berger LLP. "The whole world basically changed after Lehman in a lot of ways." Dodd-Frank's purpose, effective as of July 21, 2010, is to "promote the financial stability of the United States by improving accountability and transparency in the financial system, to end 'too big to fail,' to protect the American taxpayer by ending bailouts, to protect consumers from abusive financial services practices, and for other purposes." Under Title II of Dodd-Frank, the Orderly Liquidation Authority has been created, allowing insured depository institutions and securities companies to be liquidated under existing law by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. or Securities Investor Protection Corp. Other insurance companies and nonbank financial companies not covered elsewhere can be liquidated under the act, too. Bryan Marsal of Alvarez and Marsal Holdings LLC, who served as Lehman's CEO after the company's filing until 2012, questioned whether Dodd-Frank was the right way to deal with issues related to similar filings, adding that we have "miles to go before we sleep" when it comes to the reform act.

"The [bankruptcy process] works well," Marsal said during the teleconference. "It continued to work well, so why we are moving to a regulator process is a mystery."

Marsal maintained that risk management should not simply be the responsibility of the regulators, but has to start with the company.

Gielchinsky also questioned whether Dodd-Frank would cause more confusion moving forward.

"Dodd-Frank raises questions in and of itself ... is the proper place within the Bankruptcy Code, or is it within Title II's orderly liquidation?" Gielchinsky asked. Polsinelli's Ward contended that Dodd-Frank has provided more clarity, but hasn't exactly accomplished the goals of its mission statement. "It's provided more transparency in the system," Ward said. "It may illuminate some of the issues, but I definitely don't think it has solved the problem." Though questions around Dodd-Frank remain, there has been a consensus that a collaborative attitude from the parties involved has kept the biggest issues in Lehman's complicated case from dragging out even further than it could have. (Though Peck on Dec. 6, 2011, confirmed a liquidation plan that would allow Lehman to unwind its remaining holdings, including real estate, commercial loans and private equity and principal investment over time, Lehman is still disputing claims in the case.) Peck pointed to the establishment of a protocol for dealing with Lehman's numerous international affiliates � 7,000 legal entities located in over 40 countries � as a key force binding the combatants. "There was an extraordinary level of international cooperation and consultation," Peck said during the teleconference. "It was a coalition of the willing." Gielchinsky, who called it the first international protocol of its time, said that he has not yet seen an instance where a similar model has been used but expects it'll rear its head again. "I think that the testament to the collaborative process is the fact that the protocol worked," he said. "Everyone bought into it, the courts largely abided by it, and it should become a model for how large bankruptcy cases should be handled in the future." Miller, while outlining the biggest lessons learned from the case, said, "if parties are rational and if they examine the facts, they will work together to reach a conclusion that benefits everybody."

Peck concurred that the Lehman case shouldn't only be cast in a negative light.

"While Lehman as an event is viewed with a sense of horror, Lehman as a bankruptcy case was actually an effective and efficient way to deal with that failure," Peck said. "I can't say that it can be easily replicated. It happened improvisationally."

-- Written by Kelsey Butler in New York

Sunday, May 10, 2015

Ford to Compensate C-MAX Owners for Overoptimistic MPG Ratings

Car shoppers who recently bought a C-MAX Hybrid gas-electric car from Ford (NYSE: F  ) can expect to be getting a check in the mail soon.

On Thursday after market close, Ford announced a series of upgrades to the 2014 model year of the C-MAX Hybrid, ranging from improved gearing and more aerodynamic pillars and deflectors to reduce wind drag to higher-quality engine oil. "The enhancements to the 2014 C-MAX Hybrid are expected to improve customers' on-road fuel economy, especially at highway speeds," said Ford in a statement.

The company also had an announcement to make about fuel economy per se. Finally reacting to criticism that its claimed "47 miles per gallon" fuel economy on the car vastly overstated the C-MAX's actual performance in real life, Ford announced Thursday that it is voluntarily changing the way it measures fuel economy for the C-MAX, which so far has been essentially to test the fuel economy on the company's Fusion Hybrid ... and then assume the same fuel economy applied to the C-MAX as well.

While insisting that this approach conforms to the Environmental Protection Agency's "General Label rules" for advertising fuel economy, Ford says that from here on out, it will test fuel economy on the C-MAX separately and reduce its claimed gas mileage on the vehicle to 43 mpg. To compensate buyers who bought the car on the assumption that the old mpg number was accurate, Ford says it will make "goodwill payments" of $550 to current C-MAX owners and $325 to lessees.

link

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

76% of Advisors Use ETFs With Mutual Funds: Virtual ETF Conference Poll

At ThinkAdvisor’s virtual exchange-traded fund conference on Tuesday, a quick poll found that the vast majority of advisors now use some ETFs along with mutual funds and other vehicles in their client portfolios.

During the all-day live trade show, “ETFs: What Advisors Need to Know for Successful Portfolio Building,” 75.7% of several hundred attendees during the first of five panels reported that they now use ETFs with mutual funds and other investments. Only 6.6% reported that they use ETF-only client portfolios, and 17.8% said they don’t use ETFs at all in client portfolios but are considering them.

ThinkAdvisor editor Jamie Green, who moderated the first panel focused on the pros and cons of ETF investing, said that the ETF debate lives on, even though many advisors have become mainstream users of ETFs for their clients.

“Others aren’t fully convinced that they need ETFs at all,” Green said. “After all, index mutual funds have their own advantages, and many advisors are not interested in rapid trading of ETFs.”

Ron DeLegge, editor of ETFguideStepping forward to defend the use of ETFs in client portfolios was speaker Ron DeLegge (left), editor of ETFguide, who pointed out that ETFs now total $1.4 trillion under management, with 2008 being the only year in the last 10 years when the market hasn’t grown. In June 2013, assets decreased 4.0%, driven by a $15 billion drop in the international-emerging category.

DeLegge first went over the basics of ETFs, saying they offer the benefits of low expenses, trading flexibility and high tax efficiency, and they cover all major asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies and real estate.

“He who offers the lowest cost usually wins the race,” he said, though he acknowledged that “not everybody is a fan of ETFs out there.”

DeLegge noted that Vanguard founder John Bogle, for example, has said that ETFs are like handing an arsonist a match because they tempt investors to trade too often. But DeLegge then shared a slide of a Vanguard study of its own shareholders in 2012 that refutes the notion that investors have become day traders. Rather, it shows that buy-and-hold ETF investors outnumber buy-and-sell traders, at a rate of 83% for mutual funds and 62% for ETFs at Vanguard. Indeed, he said, Vanguard is an ETF leader, with approximately $300 billion under management.

“There are a number of companies that are now scrambling to offer ETFs,” DeLegge said. “Advisors should learn from their lead. You certainly don’t want to become an outdated relic.”

ThinkAdvisor’s virtual conference involved a total of more than 1,000 attendees, who interacted via private chats and message boards as well as at a conference center with keynote speakers, panel discussions, exhibitors’ booths and a networking lounge.

Learn more about ThinkAdvisor’s Virtual ETF conference.

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Investing in equities

If equities tempt you but you are scared to take the plunge during these volatile times, here's a complete step-by-step guide on investing in equities.

Step 1: Understand how the stock market works

When you read you begin with A-B-C. When you sing you begin with Do-Re-Mi. And when you invest in stocks you begin with business-company-shares.

Before you embark on your journey to invest in equities, teach yourself how the stock market works. Read this easy guide .

Step 2: Learn how to choose a stock
Having understood the markets, it is important to know how to go about selecting a company, a stock and the right price. A little bit of research, some smart diversification and proper monitoring will ensure that things seldom go wrong.

It's not that difficult: Just follow these 4 golden rules. And while you are at it< why don't you also check out How to buy low, sell high.

Step 3: Decide how much to invest
Since equities are high risk, high return instruments, how much you should invest would really depend on how much risk you can tolerate.

Once you have done that, use this asset allocation test to calculate exactly how much of your savings you should invest in equities.

Step 4: Monitor and review
Monitoring your equity investments regularly is recommended. Keep in touch with the quarterly-results announcements and update the prices on your portfolio worksheet atleast once a week. You can use Moneycontrol's Portfolio to update the prices of your equity holdings.

Also, review the reasons you earlier identified for buying a stock and check whether they are still valid or there have been significant changes in your earlier assumptions and expectations. And use an annual review process to review your exposure to equity shares within your overall asset allocation and rebalance, if necessary. Ideally, revisit the RiskAnalyser at every such review because your risk capacity and risk profile could have undergone a change over a 12-month period.

Finally, ensure that you avoid these seven most common investing mistakes and sail smoothly into your financial bright future.

Photograph: Jun Kokimura/Getty

Disclaimer: While we have made efforts to ensure the accuracy of our content (consisting of articles and information), neither this website nor the author shall be held responsible for any losses/ incidents suffered by people accessing, using or is supplied with the content.

Monday, April 20, 2015

Can CVS Continue to Outperform?

With shares of CVS Caremark (NYSE:CVS) trading around $63, is CVS an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE, or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

CVS Caremark is a pharmacy and healthcare provider in the United States. The company operates in three business segments: Pharmacy Services, Retail Pharmacy, and Corporate. The products and services offered at CVS Caremark stores may be deemed as essential by many consumers in the United States. As CVS Caremark provides an efficient and affordable healthcare and pharmacy experience, look for it to see rising profits.

CVS Caremark announced operating results for the three months ended September 30, 2013. Net revenues for the three months increased 5.8 percent, or $1.7 billion, to $32.0 billion compared to the three months ended in 2012.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart Are Strong

CVS Caremark stock has been displaying a strong trend in recent times. The stock is now consolidating at all time high prices where it may need to spend some time before making its next move. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, CVS Caremark is trading above its rising key averages, which signal neutral to bullish price action in the near-term.

CVS

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of CVS Caremark options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

CVS Caremark Options

21.20%

0%

0%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a minimal amount of call and put options contracts as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

December Options

Flat

Average

January Options

Flat

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and low demand by put buyers or high demand by put sellers, all neutral to bullish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a minimal amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bullish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on CVS Caremark’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for CVS Caremark look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q3

2013 Q2

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

30.38%

19.75%

30.51%

12.05%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

5.76%

1.74%

-0.11%

10.87%

Earnings Reaction

2.42%*

-2.80%

-0.92%

0.53%

CVS Caremark has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have been pleased with CVS Caremark’s recent earnings announcements.

* As of this writing

P = Average Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has CVS Caremark stock done relative to its peers, Walgreen (NYSE:WAG), Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD), Express Scripts (NASDAQ:ESRX), and sector?

CVS Caremark

Walgreen

Rite Aid

Express Scripts

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

31.17%

62.50%

293.40%

16.57%

37.74%

CVS Caremark has been an average relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

CVS Caremark provides healthcare and general products and services to consumers across the nation. The company recently reported earnings that left investors satisfied. The stock has been rising higher and it is now consolidating at all time high prices. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenue figures have been increasing leaving investors pleased about CVS Caremark's earnings announcements. Relative to its peers and sector, CVS Caremark has been an average year-to-date performer. Look for CVS Caremark to OUTPERFORM.

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Wells Fargo Soars as Revenue and Profits Swell

Financials are looking spiffy this morning as banks begin to turn in superb second-quarter earnings. Heavy hitters JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM  ) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  ) unveiled some sweet numbers earlier today, and Wells was up more than 2% in midday trading. Though the KBW Bank Index (DJINDICES: ^BKX  ) was in the red early this morning, it too has been buoyed by these excellent reports.

Earnings and revenue estimates easily beat
Wells sailed past analysts' estimates on earnings per share by $0.04, turning in a nifty $0.98 on that metric. Revenue of $21.38 beat by $0.17 billion, as well. To put those numbers in perspective, EPS increased 20% over the second quarter of 2012, with profits up 19%. Revenue was up by $89 million over last year's figures.

The somewhat flat revenue numbers are likely traceable to a slowdown in the mortgage market, particularly refinances. Despite this industrywide headwind, which was noted last quarter by both Wells and JPMorgan, Wells reported both higher mortgage originations and applications from the first quarter. The application pipeline isn't quite as robust at $63 billion, however, as it was at the end of March, when it clocked in at $74 billion.

Similarly, JPMorgan noted that its mortgage banking profit decreased by $179 million, to $1.1 billion, from the same time last year.

Wells trumped JPMorgan in the area of net interest income, a metric that has been compressed by the low-interest environment of the past few years. While JPMorgan noted that its own net interest income decreased by 1% year over year, Wells' increased by 9%  since the second quarter of 2012, because of loan growth and securities investments.

As Wells Fargo nears its 52-week high this morning, it looks like the sky will be the limit as investors celebrate the good news. Though mortgage rates have caused a drop in demand for such loans lately, Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke's calming words on Wednesday, when he reiterated the Fed's commitment to economic stimulus for the foreseeable future, may have halted the escalation, and today's rates have edged down slightly from yesterday. For Wells Fargo, the future just got a little bit brighter.

Many investors are terrified about investing in big banking stocks after the crash, but the sector has one notable stand-out. In a sea of mismanaged and dangerous peers, it rises above as "The Only Big Bank Built to Last." You can uncover the top pick that Warren Buffett loves in The Motley Fool's new report. It's free, so click here to access it now.

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Climate Change Deniers? Follow the Money!

John Vechey of PopCap Games recently joined The Motley Fool for a climate change summit. His first panel guests were Dr. Rachel Cleetus and Dr. Joe Casola. Rachel is a Climate Economist with the Union of Concerned Scientists, where she advocates for effective global warming policies at the state, regional, federal, and international levels. Joe is Program Director for Science and Impacts at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES), which works to assess the current state of knowledge regarding climate change and its impacts, and to promote actions that strengthen climate resilience.

Rachel defines "skepticism," and what it does and does not mean in the climate change "debate." There are some valid issues and questions to be asked regarding climate science -- Joe shares several of them -- but the fact of global warming, and humanity's role in causing the change, are not among them. Their message is important pushback against companies like ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM  ) , which spend heavily on efforts to deny climate science in the public domain. With growing momentum behind efforts to deal with the climate change threat, ExxonMobil may find itself on the wrong side of history.

One home run investing opportunity has seen the writing on the wall, and is becoming a part of the solution to the climate challenge. It's been slipping under Wall Street's radar for months, but it won't stay hidden much longer. Forward-thinking energy players like GE and Ford have already plowed sizable amounts of research capital into this little-known stock... because they know it holds the key to the explosive profit power of the coming "no choice fuel revolution." Luckily, there's still time for you to get on board if you act quickly. All the details are inside an exclusive report from The Motley Fool. Click here for the full story!

Sunday, April 5, 2015

You Can Thank DISH Network for Free Movies on Southwest Flights This Summer

DISH Network (NASDAQ: DISH  ) may have lost the high-stakes poker game over some serious wireless operations, but the satellite broadcaster has plenty of backup ideas up its sleeve. First up: a fresh marketing agreement with Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV  ) that delivers free movies and TV shows to Southwest passengers, courtesy of DISH.

The service delivers a subset of the content you'd get as a DISH customer with a Hopper account. Just like the Hopper deal, you'll watch a limited selection of live TV channels along with "up to 75" on-demand programs via your own mobile electronics. The data stream is powered by Southwest's onboard Wi-Fi service.

DISH suggests using Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) iPads and iPhones, and actually handed out free iPad 2 tablets (a two-year-old model that still sells for $399) to about 100 Southwest passengers in a launch-day stunt. Android users and other mobile platforms are taking a gamble as the service only supports "some" mobile devices without providing a comprehensive list.

For Southwest passengers, it's a pretty sweet deal. The movies stream totally free of charge. You don't even have to pay for the $8 in-flight Wi-Fi service separately, as the DISH media travels on a separate single-purpose network, according to a Southwest blog post.

Free in-flight live TV and on-demand movies, as seen on your own tablet. Image credit: Business Wire.

All told, it's a solid selling point for Southwest flights. The company still trails behind the entertainment options on fellow hub-less airline JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU  ) , which already offers multichannel satellite TV via DISH competitor DIRECTV as well as digital radio courtesy of sector leader Sirius XM.

JetBlue's Sirius and DIRECTV media is streamed through the built-in screens, so Southwest is certainly saving some money on hardware installation here.

Mind you, I'm not knocking Southwest's media efforts at all -- most airlines don't come close to either one of these customer-friendly feature packages. It's just worth pointing out what DISH and Southwest are up against in the free market.

Finally, DISH is clearly treating this program as a marketing exercise with a side of target practice. Southwest returns the free-movies favor by including ad spots for DISH in the media stream, as well as in various parts of the in-flight and booking experience. It's a chance for the satellite broadcaster to spread the word about its services, not to mention working up its muscles for a larger Internet-based launch down the line.

In the long run, DISH just might give up on the capital-intensive satellite game to become a pure digital streaming service. That's what the wireless bets are all about, and why the company could use some small-scale digital streaming practice like this project.

The television landscape is changing quickly, with new entrants disrupting traditional networks. DISH is certainly placing its bets early. The Motley Fool's new free report "Who Will Own the Future of Television?" details the risks and opportunities in TV. Click here to read the full report!

Thursday, April 2, 2015

Housing Heats Up

The following video is from Tuesday's Investor Beat, in which host Chris Hill, and analysts Jason Moser and Matt Koppenheffer dissect the hardest-hitting investing stories of the day.

New-home sales hit their highest point in almost five years in May, rising 2.1% from the previous month. In other housing news, the Case-Shiller index of home prices in 10 major markets increased 1.8% in April. In this installment of Investor Beat, Motley Fool analysts Matt Koppenheffer and Jason Moser discuss how investors should analyze the housing market, and why bank stocks are the hidden winners.

With the American markets reaching new highs, investors and pundits alike are skeptical about future growth. They shouldn't be. Many global regions are still stuck in neutral, and their resurgence could result in windfall profits for select companies. A recent Motley Fool report, "3 Strong Buys for a Global Economic Recovery" outlines three companies that could take off when the global economy gains steam. Click here to read the full report!

The relevant video segment can be found between 0:14 and 2:45.

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

It’s Official: Windows 8 Is a Design Failure

For all the hubbub over Windows 8's new design, and how it's better suited to the newer generation of interactive touchscreen devices, Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT  ) most loyal customers want a PC they recognize. Windows 8 is a design failure for these users.

How do we know? The good folks at The Register quote data from PC management firm Soluto that says more than half of all Windows 8 users ignore the new start menu in order to preserve old habits. Touchscreen laptop and tablet owners also largely avoid Windows 8's most advanced features. No wonder sales haven't lived up to expectations, says Tim Beyers of Motley Fool Rule Breakers and Motley Fool Supernova.

Mr. Softy's problem is that it hasn't trained users to accept disruptive changes in design and development in the same way that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) has. Instead, Windows customers expect Microsoft to be stable and predictable. Modernizing -- as Microsoft did with Windows 8 -- means risking alienating big chunk of the installed base, Tim says.

Do you agree? Please watch the video to get Tim's full take, and then let us know how you're using Windows 8.

A hard road for Mr. Softy
Is the brave new world of smart devices an opportunity for Microsoft, or a threat? A Motley Fool analyst answers this question and more in a new premium report on Microsoft. The report includes regular updates as key events occur, so make sure to claim your copy now by clicking here.