Thursday, June 18, 2015

Your Clients’ Biggest Financial Regrets

Regret is one of the most powerful emotions, and it affects everyone everywhere, particularly when it comes to financial planning. According to a recent survey undertaken by The deVere Group, a U.K.-based financial advisory firm that works with wealthy individuals across the globe, high-net-worth individuals are no exception when it comes to regret. What they regret most is not having put in place a regularly reviewed personal financial plan earlier in their lives. Their second biggest financial regret lies in inconsistently scrutinizing their personal investments and taking on too much unnecessary debt.

This has become a concern to many wealthy individuals after the 2008 financial crisis, says Nigel Greene, founder and chief executive of the deVere Group. “It’s clear that wealthy individuals value highly the benefits and opportunities that long-term financial planning brings them and their families, and that they understand the importance of routinely reviewing those plans to ensure that they always remain ‘on track’ to reach their financial goals,” Greene says.

Even though high-net-worth individuals have greater access to a financial advisor and a greater financial cushion than others for any bad decisions, the regret they feel with respect to not having planned thoroughly can impede their ability to future financial planning as much as those who aren’t so wealthy, he says.

“It’s up to financial planners, then, to work through that regret and to get people to understand that no matter how big a regret they might have with something they have done or not done in the past, a bigger regret is coming if they don’t do something now,” he says.

The impact of financial regret is even greater for those whose means are not so extensive, says Richard Peterson, managing director at MarketPsych.

Whenever people regret a financial decision, they tend to evaluate themselves compared to others and more importantly, compared to where they think they should be and where they’re at.

“This can result in a kind of paralysis that stops people from taking any more financial decisions,” Peterson says. “After the financial crisis, everyone felt a sense of regret and it came together to make this huge pool of common regret.”

Although many people have moved beyond the financial crisis – in fact, Peterson says, some are now ruing the fact that they weren’t as financially adventurous as they could have been when the market was rallying – advisors will always have to address their clients’ regrets, because regret happens in both negative and positive market environments.

“The first step an advisor needs to take is to acknowledge the regret and then work to push it out, because regret is always diffused by the passage of time,” Peterson says. “An advisor needs to move their clients to the state of reappraisal, and get them to think of future decisions they will take.”

And the best way to do that is to give clients a sense of what they can and can’t control going forward.

“People can control what loans they take out, for example, how much they borrow and so on, but they can’t control larger things like the direction of interest rates, and advisors need to make their clients aware that despite those larger happenings, they still need to take decisions for their financial future,” Peterson says.

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Assurant Shares Hit 52-Week High - Analyst Blog

On Jul 8, 2013, the shares of Assurant Inc. (AIZ) hit a 52-week high of $51.97. The momentum was driven by strong execution in its various segments as well as a favorable operating performance from the past several quarters. Assurant delivered earnings surprise in 3 of last 4 quarter with an average beat of 36.8%. Assurant has a diverse product base and distribution platform with established presence in various niche markets, enabling it to generate sustained solid operating earnings. The company maintained an adequate risk-adjusted capitalization, low debt-to-capital ratio and adequate interest coverage ratio. Going forward, we expect Assurant's Specialty line of business to benefit from growth in multi-housing loans and higher volume in lender-placed loan portfolios in the later half of 2013. Also, the Solutions line business will see higher top-line growth from increases in domestic as well as international businesses. Moreover, the company has geared itself with product mix changes in the health line of business to position itself for the changed market as a result of Healthcare reform. We expect these initiatives will bring long-term earnings growth from this segment. Assurant also boosts a strong balance sheet with efficient capital management. It supports the company to increase dividend payout and well as ensure steady buybacks which in turn drives bottom-line earnings growth. Valuation looks attractive for Assurant. The shares are currently trading at a discount to the peer group average on a forward price-to-earnings basis and a slight discount on a price-to-book basis. The return on equity of is much higher than the peer group average. Also, the year-to-date return from the stock is 49.2%, above S&P's return of 15.0%. Assurant carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Multi-line insurers Cigna Corp. (CI), Enstar Group Limited. (ESGR), CNO Financial Group Inc. (CNO), among others, are worth taking a look. All these stocks carry Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Monday, June 15, 2015

US Intial Jobless Claims Show Slight Improvement; 4-Week MA At Lowest Since ...

THE TAKEAWAY:USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 3) > 333K versus 335K expected, from 328K (revised up from 326K) > USDJPY BULLISHMarkets are closely watching US labor data after a tremendous miss in Non-farm Payrolls last week (+162K July actual; +185K Bloomberg News survey expected). This meaningful miss, along with a downward revision in June figures to +188K, caused more caution towards labor market sentiment after earlier optimistic NFP data.The weekly Initial Jobless Claims data slightly beat Bloomberg News survey expectations, coming in at 333K versus the 335K consensus. However these weekly numbers are volatile so investors often like to take a four-week moving average to smooth out the ridges.US_Intial_Jobless_Claims_Show_Slight_Improvement_4-Week_MA_At_Lowest_Since_2007_body_Picture_2.png, US Intial Jobless Claims Show Slight Improvement; 4-Week MA At Lowest Since 2007Note the y-axis on the chart above is scaled in thousands and begins at 300K.The trend in data shown above is certainly optimistic. In fact, the four-week moving average of 335.5K is at its lowest level since November 2007.However the Initial Jobless Claims does not tell the whole labor market story. The labor force participation rate is at 63.4%, compared to 66.0% in November 2007. Needless to say, numerous variables need to be considered to affirm labor market development. The Fed will need to decide whether the economy is indeed strong enough before it consider tapering asset purchases at the September meeting. Ideally for the Fed, NFPs will be around +200K for several months. Thus additional labor market data will need to be closely watched in coming weeks before any further deliberation can take place.USDJPY 1-minute Chart: August 8, 2013US_Intial_Jobless_Claims_Show_Slight_Improvement_4-Week_MA_At_Lowest_Since_2007_body_Picture_1.png, US Intial Jobless Claims Show Slight Improvement; 4-Week MA At Lowest Since 2007Charts Created using Marketscope – prepared by Kevin JinThe USDJPY is slightly lower after the marginally positive US labor data. The pair is down about -25 pips at the time of writing and even attempted to reach ¥96.00 before turning slightly higher.--- Written by Kevin Jin, DailyFX ResearchAre you new to trading? Watch this.original source

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

How BAE Systems Measures up as a GARP Investment

LONDON -- A popular way to dig out reasonably priced stocks with robust growth potential is through the "Growth at a Reasonable Price", or GARP, strategy. This theory uses the price-to-earnings to growth (PEG) ratio to show how a share's price weighs up in relation to its near-term growth prospects -- a reading below 1 is generally considered decent value for money.

Today I am looking at BAE Systems  (LSE: BA  ) (NASDAQOTH: BAESY  ) to see how it measures up.

What are BAE Systems' earnings expected to do?

 

2013

2014

EPS Growth

9.0%

(1.0)%

P/E Ratio

9.7

9.8

PEG Ratio

1

n/a

Source: Digital Look

BAE Systems is widely expected to punch solid earnings growth in the coming year, although fears of falling defense expenditure in the West is predicted to result in a slight drop in 2014.

For this year, BAE Systems looks like great value with a PEG reading bang on the money at one, while a P/E ratio of below 10 -- territory which is generally considered decent value -- also underlines its position as a cheap pick. Next year's earnings dip knocks out this PEG ratio, however, although its P/E multiple is projected to remain in bargain terrain.

Does BAE Systems provide decent value against its rivals?

 

FTSE 100

Aerospace & Defense

Prospective P/E Ratio

16.7

12.9

Prospective PEG Ratio

4.7

3.5

Source: Digital Look

BAE Systems stacks up favorably against both the FTSE 100 as well as its peers in the aerospace and defense sector, considering both forward PEG and P/E ratios.

Many of BAE Systems' defense rivals are smaller, more flexible and thus better equipped to protect earnings despite falling expenditure on both sides of the Atlantic. Still, these problems are still a heavy plague across the whole sector, making BAE Systems look cheap at current prices.

Although fears over reduced spending from traditional customers in the near term continues to dent investor appeal, the company's huge order pipeline -- its backlog rose 8% last year to £42.4 billion -- illustrates BAE Systems' solid growth potential.

An important defense player with expanding horizons
BAE Systems is extending its geographical range in order to mitigate the effect of falling orders from the West, and saw orders outside of the U.S. and U.K. advance to £11.2 billion in 2012, a gargantuan 133% leap from the previous year. The company is already a major player in Saudi Arabia, and is making huge inroads into other lucrative developing markets including India.

The effect of budgetary constraints in Washington, combined with a reduction in combat operations in Afghanistan in coming years, is likely to crimp hardware demand from the U.S. However, BAE Systems -- which derives 40% of total turnover from the country -- remains a critical supplier to the country's armed forces.

Just this week the company, through its role as subcontractor to Support Systems Associates, was awarded a $1.5 billion contract for a five-year duration to provide aircraft engineering solutions and logistics to the U.S. armed forces.

Although fears of reduced Western spend continues to hamper confidence in BAE Systems, I believe that the company is a great GARP stock. Its position at the forefront of battleground technologies makes it an important supplier to the world's largest military superpower. Coupled with this, I expect rising exposure to lucrative new geographies to underpin strong earnings expansion moving forwards.

The expert's guide for intelligent investors
If you already hold shares in BAE Systems, check out this newly updated special report which highlights a host of other FTSE winners identified by ace fund manager Neil Woodford.

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Monday, June 8, 2015

Why Rent-A-Center's Earnings May Not Be So Hot

Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

Calling all cash flows
When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on Rent-A-Center (Nasdaq: RCII  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, Rent-A-Center generated $98.2 million cash while it booked net income of $178.0 million. That means it turned 3.2% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK. However, FCF is less than net income. Ideally, we'd like to see the opposite.

All cash is not equal
Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

So how does the cash flow at Rent-A-Center look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

With questionable cash flows amounting to only 7.3% of operating cash flow, Rent-A-Center's cash flows look clean. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, other operating activities (which can include deferred income taxes, pension charges, and other one-off items) provided the biggest boost, at 2.4% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 49.1% of cash from operations.

A Foolish final thought
Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

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We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

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Thursday, June 4, 2015

Is This the Future of TV?

The following video is from Monday's MarketFoolery podcast, in which host Chris Hill  and analysts Jason Moser and Matt Argersinger discuss the top business and investing stories of the day.

Shares of Sprint (NYSE: S  )  rose on Monday on news that DISH Network  (NASDAQ: DISH  )  has made a bid to buy Sprint for $25.5 billion. What would the deal mean for competitors like Verizon (NYSE: VZ  ) , AT&T (NYSE: T  ) , and Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA  ) ? What would it mean for Amazon and Netflix? In this installment, our analysts talk about the future of television.

The tumultuous performance of Netflix shares since the summer of 2011 has caused headaches for many devoted shareholders. While the company's first-mover status is often viewed as a competitive advantage, the opportunities in streaming media have brought some new, deep-pocketed rivals looking for their piece of a growing pie. Can Netflix fend off this burgeoning competition, and will its international growth aspirations really pay off? These are must-know issues for investors, which is why The Motley Fool has released a premium report on Netflix. Inside, you'll learn about the key opportunities and risks facing the company, as well as reasons to buy or sell the stock. The report includes a full year of updates to cover critical new developments, so make sure to click here and claim a copy today.

The relevant video segment can be found between 1:46 and 6:17.

For the full video of today's MarketFoolery, click here.

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

CarMax Beats on Revenue, Matches Expectations on EPS

CarMax (NYSE: KMX  ) reported earnings on April 10. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Feb. 28 (Q4), CarMax beat expectations on revenues and met expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue grew. GAAP earnings per share grew.

Gross margins shrank, operating margins shrank, net margins were steady.

Revenue details
CarMax reported revenue of $2.83 billion. The 12 analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ predicted a top line of $2.73 billion on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 14% higher than the prior-year quarter's $2.54 billion.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.46. The 15 earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ averaged $0.46 per share. GAAP EPS of $0.46 for Q4 were 15% higher than the prior-year quarter's $0.40 per share.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 15.3%, 60 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 6.2%, 90 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 3.7%, much about the same as the prior-year quarter. (Margins calculated in GAAP terms.)

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $3.11 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is $0.57.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $12.16 billion. The average EPS estimate is $2.09.

Investor sentiment

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on CarMax is outperform, with an average price target of $40.00.

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Add CarMax to My Watchlist.